634  
FXUS63 KPAH 191131  
AFDPAH  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY  
631 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING IS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR SOUTHERN  
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI, MOST OF THE PURCHASE AREA OF  
WEST KENTUCKY, AND ALEXANDER AND PULASKI COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN  
ILLINOIS. THIS WILL BE THE FOURTH CONSECUTIVE DAY OF AT LEAST  
A 105 DEGREE HEAT INDEX IN THESE AREAS. ELSEWHERE, A HEAT  
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM 103 TO  
107 DEGREES.  
 
- A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY IN THE HEAT OF  
THE DAY FROM TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. TORRENTIAL RAINFALL,  
LIGHTNING, AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS.  
THE TORRENTIAL RAINS COULD TEMPORARILY OVERWHELM DRAINAGE  
SYSTEMS, AND ISOLATED AREAS THAT RECEIVE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF  
STORMS COULD SEE MORE SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING.  
 
- THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER SOUTHEAST  
MISSOURI THIS WEEKEND, AND NEXT WEEK, AS STORM CHANCES  
DWINDLE, THE ENTIRE QUAD STATE WILL EXPERIENCE A PROLONGED AND  
INCREASINGLY DANGEROUS HEATWAVE WITH DAILY HEAT INDICES OF  
105 TO 115.  
 
 
   
UPDATE  
 
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2025  
 
THE 06Z GUIDANCE IS TRENDING DRIER ACROSS THE QUAD STATE TODAY  
AND EVEN SUNDAY. WE WILL STILL HAVE TO WATCH TO OUR NORTH, AS  
STORMS TRY TO DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO THE REGION, BUT THAT  
POSSIBILITY IS CONSIDERABLY LESS THAN IT WAS ON THE 00Z  
GUIDANCE. OF COURSE, THE LESSER CONVECTIVE THREAT WOULD LEAD TO  
MORE DISGUSTING HEAT AND HUMIDITY IN THE NORTHEAST.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2025  
 
WE HAVE ISSUED AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF  
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI, MOST OF THE PURCHASE AREA, AND ALEXANDER AND  
PULASKI COUNTIES IN ILLINOIS. THIS AREA WILL EASILY SEE HEAT  
INDICES TOP 105 FOR THE FOURTH CONSECUTIVE DAY WHICH MEETS OUR  
DURATION CRITERIA FOR AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING. THE WARNING COULD  
HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR VIRTUALLY ALL OF WEST KENTUCKY, BUT EAST OF  
THE LAKES, OUR NEIGHBORS HAVE NO HEAT HEADLINES, AND THERE IS A  
BETTER CHANCE OF CONVECTION LIMITING HEATING, SO THAT AREA WAS  
INCLUDED IN THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR TODAY. AN EXPANSION OF THE  
WARNING FARTHER EAST IN WEST KENTUCKY IS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY.  
 
AS FOR CONVECTION TODAY, THE WEAK BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHERN  
PORTIONS OF THE QUAD STATE IS EXPECTED TO MIX OUT THIS MORNING  
WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED EVERYWHERE THROUGH THE DAY. THIS  
WILL LIMIT ANY DIURNAL CONVECTION. THE BIGGER CONVECTIVE CONCERN  
IS WITH ONE OR MORE MCSS TO OUR NORTHWEST EVENTUALLY REACHING  
OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR AND NAMNEST HAVE CONSISTENTLY  
HELD THIS OFF UNTIL AROUND 3 PM, ALLOWING FOR AMPLE HEATING  
THROUGH THE ENTIRE QUAD STATE TODAY.  
 
THE HREF MEAN HAS A LARGE AREA OF 3000J/KG OF CAPE THIS  
AFTERNOON, BUT THE SHEAR REMAINS WEAK FOR MOST OF THE DAY. IT  
DOES BRING IN SOME RATHER SIGNIFICANT 0-3KM SHEAR (200M2S2) EARLY  
THIS EVENING, ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA, HOWEVER, IT MAY BE  
BEHIND THE ACTIVE CONVECTION. ALL IN ALL, CANNOT DISAGREE MUCH  
WITH SPC'S SLIGHT RISK OVER OUR NORTHEAST, WITH A SOMEWHAT  
BETTER CHANCE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY EVEN SOME HAIL  
THREAT. THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR LOOKS TOO WEAK FOR ANY TANGIBLE  
TORNADO THREAT.  
 
WITH EXTREME MOISTURE CONTENT CONTINUING ACROSS THE REGION, ANY  
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL THAT WILL  
BE CAPABLE OF OVERWHELMING LOCAL DRAINAGES FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF  
TIME. AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL  
YESTERDAY AND AGAIN TODAY COULD SEE A MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING  
THREAT.  
 
THE 00Z GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED THE CONVECTIVE THREAT NORTHEAST FOR  
SUNDAY, SO WE ONLY HAVE CHANCE POPS FOCUSED OVER THE TRI STATE  
AND PENNYRILE. THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE SUNDAY  
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND THAT MAY PUSH A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO  
THE QUAD STATE. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A BETTER COVERAGE OF  
CONVECTION, ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. WE WILL BE BACK TO THE MORE  
TYPICAL TORRENTIAL RAINFALL, LIGHTNING, AND GUSTY WINDS REGIME  
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WE WILL FINALLY DRY OUT TUESDAY AND  
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS  
OVERHEAD.  
 
AS FOR THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY, SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND ADJACENT  
PORTIONS OF KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE  
AT LEAST 105 HEAT INDICES EACH AFTERNOON SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT  
WEEK AND POSSIBLY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AS THE CONVECTIVE SPIGOT  
SHUTS OFF TUESDAY, THE ENTIRE AREA WILL SEE HEAT INDICES OF  
105-115 EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO  
THE WEEKEND. THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT THE  
500MB HIGH WILL BE RIGHT OVERHEAD AND AT ITS STRONGEST  
WEDNESDAY, BUT THE EVOLUTION OF THE HIGH INTO NEXT WEEKEND IS IN  
DOUBT. THERE IS SOME SIGNAL AT LEAST FOR SOME CONVECTIVE  
POTENTIAL BY NEXT SATURDAY, BUT THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY MAY  
CONTINUE AT LEAST OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.  
UNTIL THE DAILY CONVECTION ENDS, IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO EXTEND  
OUR HEAT HEADLINES MORE THAN A DAY AT A TIME, UNTIL WE GET TO  
TUESDAY AND BEYOND.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2025  
 
WE ARE WATCHING A CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVING EAST OUT OF STL, BUT  
THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS WOULD TAKE IT NORTH OF KMVN IN A FEW  
HOURS. THREW IN A VCSH THERE FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING JUST  
TO BE SAFE. OTHERWISE, HAVE A CHANCE OF TSRA AT THE NORTHERN  
SITES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING, BUT COULD HAVE LEFT  
IT OUT, GIVEN THE DOWNWARD TREND IN GUIDANCE. A BRIEF MVFR  
CEILING LATE THIS MORNING CANNOT BE RULED OUT. IF WE DON'T GET  
THE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON, THE FOG CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE  
VERY LOW. LEFT IT OUT OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.  
 
 
   
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
IL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR  
ILZ075>078-080>091-094.  
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS  
EVENING FOR ILZ092-093.  
MO...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR  
MOZ076-086-087-100.  
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS  
EVENING FOR MOZ107>112-114.  
IN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR  
INZ081-085-086.  
KY...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR  
KYZ005-007-010>022.  
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS  
EVENING FOR KYZ001>004-006-008-009.  
 
 
 
 
 
UPDATE...DRS  
DISCUSSION...DRS  
AVIATION...DRS  
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