601
FXUS63 KPAH 192340
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
640 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ONGOING STORMS UP NORTH CAUSING FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. LIMITED SEVERE THREAT AT THIS TIME.
- EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA
FOR THE 4TH CONSECUTIVE DAY OF HEAT INDICES OF 105+. A HEAT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE AREA TODAY
FOR HEAT INDICES OF 103 TO 107.
- DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
NEXT WEEK HEAT INDICES WILL BE 105+ NEARLY EVERY DAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2025
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 151 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2025
STORMS HAVE ALREADY KICKED OFF UP NORTH LATE THIS MORNING AND ARE
SHOWING SIGNS OF TRAINING AND BACK BUILDING ALONG A BOUNDARY PRESENT
UP THERE. THIS IS CAUSING FLASH FLOODING ISSUES DUE TO THE HIGH
PWATS LEADING TO HEAVY RAINFALL. SO FAR THERE ARE NO SEVERE CONCERNS
DESPITE THE 3,000 J/KG OF CAPE PRESENT. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE UNTIL STORMS DIE OFF AFTER SUNSET.
AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA
THROUGH THIS EVENING DUE TO HAVING 4 CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF HEAT
INDICES OF 105+. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE REST
OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING AS WELL WITH HEAT INDICES OF 103 TO
107. TOMORROW WILL NEED ANOTHER EXTREME HEAT WARNING AS HEAT INDICES
CONTINUE TO BE 105+, BUT DUE TO THE ONGOING FLOODING WILL PUNT TO
THE EVENING SHIFT TO ISSUE THE HEADLINE.
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO SUPPORT A DRIER SOLUTION FOR TOMORROW
BEFORE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES BY MONDAY AND A COLD FRONT IS
PUSHED INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR MORE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MONDAY. THINGS START TO DRY OUT TUESDAY ONWARD
WITH PROLONGED DANGEROUS HEAT BEING THE MAIN CONCERN AS THE UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS. HEAT INDICES LOOK TO BE UP TO AROUND 110 EACH DAY,
POSSIBLY UP TO 115. MORE HEAT HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2025
ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY
EARLY THIS EVENING, AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THEREAFTER.
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR SOME LOW CLOUD BASES THIS EVENING AROUND
EVV, OWB, AND MVN, BUT KEPT COVERAGE FEW-SCT FOR NOW. DIURNAL CU
DEVELOPMENT WILL COMMENCE AROUND 15Z, WITH BASES AROUND 3KFT
INITIALLY, RISING TO AROUND 4-5KFT BY AFTERNOON, LIGHT SW WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL PICK UP TO AROUND 8-12 KTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH
GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ILZ088-089-094.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ILZ092-
093.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MOZ076-086-087-
100.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
MOZ107>112-114.
IN...NONE.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ005.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
KYZ001>004-006-008-009.
UPDATE...DWS
DISCUSSION...HICKFORD
AVIATION...DWS
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