306
FXUS63 KPAH 200436
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1136 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ONGOING STORMS UP NORTH CAUSING FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. LIMITED SEVERE THREAT AT THIS TIME.
- EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA
FOR THE 4TH CONSECUTIVE DAY OF HEAT INDICES OF 105+. A HEAT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE AREA TODAY
FOR HEAT INDICES OF 103 TO 107.
- DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
NEXT WEEK HEAT INDICES WILL BE 105+ NEARLY EVERY DAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2025
WITH THE FLOODING DONE, FOCUS HAS TURNED TO SUNDAY'S HEAT. HAVE
ISSUED AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING FOR SOUTHEAST MO, FAR SOUTHWEST
IL, AND FAR WESTERN KY, WHERE THE FOUR DAY DURATION CRITERIA OF
105+ DEGREE HEAT INDEX VALUES HAS BEEN MET OR EXCEEDED.
ELSEWHERE, HAVE HOISTED A HEAT ADVISORY.
BOTH HEADLINES WILL RUN THROUGH 01Z MONDAY. AREAWIDE HEAT PEAK
HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105-110 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED, WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER VALUES UP TO 115 DEGREES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE
EXTREME HEAT WARNING.
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE IS BELOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 151 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2025
STORMS HAVE ALREADY KICKED OFF UP NORTH LATE THIS MORNING AND ARE
SHOWING SIGNS OF TRAINING AND BACK BUILDING ALONG A BOUNDARY PRESENT
UP THERE. THIS IS CAUSING FLASH FLOODING ISSUES DUE TO THE HIGH
PWATS LEADING TO HEAVY RAINFALL. SO FAR THERE ARE NO SEVERE CONCERNS
DESPITE THE 3,000 J/KG OF CAPE PRESENT. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE UNTIL STORMS DIE OFF AFTER SUNSET.
AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA
THROUGH THIS EVENING DUE TO HAVING 4 CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF HEAT
INDICES OF 105+. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE REST
OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING AS WELL WITH HEAT INDICES OF 103 TO
107. TOMORROW WILL NEED ANOTHER EXTREME HEAT WARNING AS HEAT INDICES
CONTINUE TO BE 105+, BUT DUE TO THE ONGOING FLOODING WILL PUNT TO
THE EVENING SHIFT TO ISSUE THE HEADLINE.
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO SUPPORT A DRIER SOLUTION FOR TOMORROW
BEFORE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES BY MONDAY AND A COLD FRONT IS
PUSHED INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR MORE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MONDAY. THINGS START TO DRY OUT TUESDAY ONWARD
WITH PROLONGED DANGEROUS HEAT BEING THE MAIN CONCERN AS THE UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS. HEAT INDICES LOOK TO BE UP TO AROUND 110 EACH DAY,
POSSIBLY UP TO 115. MORE HEAT HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2025
FOR THE 06Z TAFS, GENERALLY QUIET/VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
UNTIL THE LAST SIX HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS WHEN
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT MVN, OWB, AND EVV. HAVE
INCLUDED PROB30 GROUPS FOR PARTS OF THE 00-06Z MONDAY WINDOW
HERE. OTHERWISE, EXPECTED ROBUST DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT AGAIN
WITH CLOUD BASES IN THE 3-5KFT RANGE. LIGHT SW WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL PICK UP TO AROUND 8-12 KTS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS OF
15-20 KTS.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR ILZ075>078-
080>087-090-091.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR ILZ088-089-
092>094.
MO...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114.
IN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON CDT /1 PM EDT/ TO 8 PM CDT /9 PM EDT/
SUNDAY FOR INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR KYZ007-010>022.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR KYZ001>006-008-
009.
UPDATE...DWS
DISCUSSION...HICKFORD
AVIATION...DWS
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