421
FXUS63 KPAH 210459
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1159 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAT INDICES WILL TOP OUT FROM 105 TO 110 THIS AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY FOR SOUTHWEST PORTIONS
OF THE QUAD STATE. AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING IS IN EFFECT IN
THOSE AREAS DUE TO 4 PREVIOUS DAYS OF SIMILAR CONDITIONS AND
CONTINUED EXTREME HEAT EACH AFTERNOON.
- HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY (HEAT
INDEX VALUES APPROACHING 105) OUTSIDE OF THE EXTREME HEAT
WARNING AREAS; HOWEVER, THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LEADS TO LESS
CERTAINTY.
- THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR IS IN A FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE EVANSVILLE TRI STATE TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY MONDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2025
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2025
A SURFACE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO LINGER NEAR THE I-64 CORRIDOR WITH A
LINE OF DEEPER CU SHOWN THIS AFTERNOON ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THAT BOUNDARY, ALONG WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE FROM MISSOURI,
WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE LATER THIS
EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
PROGGED TO BE AROUND 2.5 INCHES IN THAT GENERAL AREA, WHICH IS ABOUT
200 PERCENT OF NORMAL AND VERY SUPPORTIVE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
RATES. AGAIN THE MAIN FOCUS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR THE I-64 CORRIDOR
WHERE VERY HEAVY RAIN FELL OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE COMBINATION
OF SATURATED SOILS AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL SUPPORTS THE
CONTINUED FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THOSE AREAS. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THE AREA OR THE START/END TIMES OF THE WATCH.
A SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM THE OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
BE DRAPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST KY AND SOUTHWEST IN THROUGH
TUESDAY HELPING TO INCREASE AFTERNOON COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS. THAT MAY HELP TO KEEP CLOUD COVER AROUND FOR AT LEAST A
PORTION OF THOSE LOCATIONS, MAKING HEAT HEADLINES A BIT MORE TRICKY
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE MAIN CHANGE WITH THIS UPDATE WAS
TO EXPAND THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING TO A FEW MORE COUNTIES INTO
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND TO ALSO EXTEND THE TIMING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD EASILY REACH 105+ FOR THOSE
LOCATIONS EACH AFTERNOON. EAST OF THE HEAT WARNING, AN HEAT ADVISORY
WILL BE NEEDED EACH AFTERNOON; HOWEVER, THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND
CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE EASTWARD EXTENT. TO AVOID A DOUBLE
HEADLINE, OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING THE HEAT ADVISORY ON THIS
SHIFT AND WILL ISSUE THE NEW ONE ON THE EVENING SHIFT.
AS THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, EXPECT THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE WITH LESS SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE
EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THAT WILL LIKELY CHANGE
FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A COUPLE WAVES COME THROUGH...HELPING TO
FLATTEN THE RIDGE ONLY SLIGHTLY. THAT SHOULD HELP TO REINTRODUCE AT
LEAST SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2025
FOR THE 06Z TAFS, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT MVN, EVV, AND
OWB WILL SEE SOME SHOWER/CONVECTION IMPACTS AT SOME POINT
DURING THE 06-12Z WINDOW. THE FORECAST AT THIS TERMINALS INCLUDE
BOTH FM GROUPS AND TEMPO GROUPS TO HANDLE THE TIMING AND
POSSIBLE CIG/VSBY REDUCTIONS. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
IS AGAIN POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON HERE. THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW
WINDS WILL BRING STEADY N-NE WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
ELSEWHERE QUIET VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH STEADY W-SW
WINDS AROUND 4-8 KTS AND SCT DIURNAL CU.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR ILZ075>078-082-083.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR ILZ080-081-
084-085-088-089-092>094.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR ILZ086-087-090-091.
MO...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR MOZ076-086-
087-100-107>112-114.
IN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR KYZ001>006-
008-009.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR KYZ007-010>022.
UPDATE...DWS
DISCUSSION...KC
AVIATION...DWS
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