159
FXUS63 KPAH 211139
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
639 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR REMAINS IN A FLOOD WATCH TODAY.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL MAY STREAM SOUTHEAST
ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN ILLINOIS PORTION OF THE WATCH THIS
MORNING.
- A HEAT ADVISORY AND EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING COVER ALL BUT THE
INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR FROM TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY HOLD BACK THE HEAT TODAY AND TUESDAY,
ESPECIALLY OVER WEST KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.
ELSEWHERE, EXPECT AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES TO RANGE FROM 105 TO
110 THROUGH TUESDAY. THE ENTIRE QUAD STATE WILL EXPERIENCE THE
EXTREME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
- CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST OVER PORTIONS
OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND, AND THAT MAY FINALLY PROVIDE SOME
BREAK FROM THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2025
THE BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT: NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FLOOD
WATCH, OR THE HEAT ADVISORY AND WARNING WITH THIS FORECAST
ISSUANCE, BUT ADJUSTMENTS TO ALL OF THEM MAY BE NECESSARY LATER
TODAY.
THE ONGOING CONVECTION JUST ENTERING OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES IN
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS WILL CONTINUE SOUTH SOUTHEAST AND SHOULD PUSH
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THROUGH SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND WEST KENTUCKY
BY MIDDAY. CONFIDENCE IN EXACTLY HOW THIS CONVECTION WILL
EVOLVE THIS MORNING IS NOT GREAT, BUT SOME ISOLATED HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN THE ILLINOIS PORTION OF THE
FLOOD WATCH THIS MORNING. THE DAY SHIFT MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL
IT BY MIDDAY. OTHERWISE, EXPECT SOME GUSTY WINDS AND TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS WITH THE STRONGER CELLS, AS THEY DEVELOP SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE REST OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND INTO WEST KENTUCKY.
ANY WINDS THIS MORNING SHOULD BE 30 MPH OR LESS.
MEANWHILE, A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS
EAST SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE TRI STATE TODAY,
EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. BY THE END OF THE
DAY WE SHOULD HAVE A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTED BOUNDARY
FROM SOUTHERN ILLINOIS THROUGH WEST KENTUCKY. THE 00Z GUIDANCE
DEVELOPS CONVECTION ALONG AND TO THE COOL SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY
PERSISTENTLY FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS COULD
LEAD TO SOME TRAINING OF CONVECTION AND POSSIBLY SOME ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING ISSUES.
THE PRESENCE OF THE BOUNDARY, CONVECTION, AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD
COVER COULD HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TODAY AND TUESDAY. THE NBM WAS STILL ABLE TO GENERATE TRIPLE
DIGIT HEAT INDICES THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE ENTIRE ADVISORY AND
WARNING AREAS, SO NO CHANGES WERE MADE, BUT THERE IS A DECENT
CHANCE THAT SOME PORTION OF THE AREA WILL NOT REACH ADVISORY
CRITERIA TODAY AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY.
THE 500MB HIGH IS STILL EXPECTED TO BUILD RIGHT OVERHEAD BY
WEDNESDAY AND THAT SHOULD BE THE PEAK OF THE HEATWAVE THROUGHOUT
THE QUAD STATE. THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE
EXPANDED BACK OVER ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AND
POSSIBLY THURSDAY, TOO.
THE 00Z GUIDANCE SUPPRESSES THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH RATHER
QUICKLY BY THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH THE QUAD STATE UNDER A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THIS MAY
TAKE THE EDGE OFF OF THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY, AND SHOULD LEAD TO
SOME DECENT COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. UNFORTUNATELY, THE 500MB
RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING BACK TO THE EAST OVER THE REGION AS WE
HEAD INTO NEXT MONDAY. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE EXTREME
HEAT WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. HOPEFULLY, AT SOME POINT NEXT
WEEKEND THEY WILL GET A LITTLE BREAK OVER THERE, BUT IT IS NO
SLAM DUNK AT THIS POINT.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2025
VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN THIS CONVECTIVELY MUDDLED
SITUATION. THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH
THIS MORNING AND TSRA IS POSSIBLE AT KMVN. TSRA WILL THEN BE
POSSIBLE AT KCGI KPAH IN THE AFTERNOON. IF SKIES CAN CLEAR, FOG
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ILZ075>078-082-083.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR ILZ080-081-
084-085-088-089-092>094.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR ILZ086-087-090-091.
MO...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR MOZ076-086-
087-100-107>112-114.
IN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR KYZ001>006-
008-009.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR KYZ007-010>022.
DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...DRS
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