615  
FXUS63 KPAH 212034  
AFDPAH  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY  
334 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS  
THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH BY OR JUST AFTER SUNSET.  
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.  
 
- A HEAT ADVISORY AND EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING COVER ALL BUT THE  
INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR THROUGH THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS MAY HOLD BACK THE HEAT IN THOSE AREAS ON  
TUESDAY. OUTSIDE OF THE STORMS AND CLOUD COVER AFTERNOON HEAT  
INDICES WILL RANGE FROM 105 TO 110 THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.  
THE ENTIRE QUAD STATE WILL EXPERIENCE THE EXTREME HEAT AND  
HUMIDITY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  
 
- CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST OVER PORTIONS  
OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND, WHICH MAY FINALLY PROVIDE SOME  
BREAK FROM THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2025  
 
A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON  
ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY, STRETCHING FROM SEMO EASTWARD THROUGH  
THE PENNYRILE OF KY. WHILE COVERAGE IS NOT WIDESPREAD, THE  
SHOWER AND STORMS ARE PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND MAY  
LEAD TO LOCALIZE FLOODING. THE PEAK OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED  
TO LINGER THROUGH ABOUT 6-7PM BEFORE DIMINISHING TOWARD OR JUST  
AFTER SUNSET.  
 
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH  
MAY AGAIN KEEP SOME OF THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES UP NEAR THE I-64  
CORRIDOR FROM REACHING HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS. NO CHANGES IN HEADLINES  
WERE MADE WITH THIS UPDATE. HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD EASILY  
REACH 105+ FOR THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING LOCATIONS AND UP TO  
105 DEGREES IN THE HEAT ADVISORY. THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY  
BE EXPANDED TO THE NORTHEAST AT LEAST A COUPLE OF TIERS OF  
COUNTIES INTO ILLINOIS AND A PORTION OF SOUTHWEST INDIANA FOR  
TUESDAY . AGAIN, A FEW LOCATIONS WILL BE MARGINAL ON THE HEAT  
ADVISORY IN SOUTHWEST IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
AS THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, EXPECT THE HEAT AND  
HUMIDITY TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA WITH LESS SHOWER AND STORM  
COVERAGE EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THOSE WILL  
LIKELY BE THE PEAK HEAT DAYS THROUGH THIS HEAT WAVE!  
 
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG WITH SOME RELIEF FROM  
THE HEAT WILL ARRIVE FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A COUPLE WAVES MOVE  
THROUGH THE QUAD STATE. THAT WILL HELP TO AT LEAST BRIEFLY FLATTEN  
THE RIDGE TO A VERY SMALL EXTENT. ANY RELIEF WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS  
THE RIDGE LOOKS TO QUICKLY BUILD BACK ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO  
MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S AND HEAT  
INDEX VALUES PUSHING CLOSE TO OR EXCEEDING 105 DEGREES AGAIN!!  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2025  
 
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY IMPACT THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON  
BEFORE DIMINISHING NEAR SUNSET. WHERE STORMS OCCUR, MVFR  
CEILINGS AND PERHAPS BRIEF LOWER VISIBILITIES CAN BE EXPECTED.  
OTHERWISE, LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR  
GROUND FOG FORMATION AT EACH OF THE TAF SITES. CONDITIONS WILL  
IMPROVE AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING.  
 

 
   
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
IL...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR ILZ080-081-  
084-085-088-089-092>094.  
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR ILZ086-087-090-091.  
MO...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR MOZ076-086-  
087-100-107>112-114.  
IN...NONE.  
KY...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR KYZ001>006-  
008-009.  
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR KYZ007-010>022.  
 

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...KC  
AVIATION...KC  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab KY Page
The Nexlab IL Page
The Nexlab IN Page
The Nexlab MO Page Main Text Page