955
FXUS63 KPAH 220638
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
138 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- EXCESSIVE HEAT HEADLINES COVER THE ENTIRETY OF THE REGION FOR
THE BULK OF THE WEEK.
- THE ONLY RELIEF FROM THE HEAT WILL BE DAILY THUNDESTORM
CHANCES, WHICH WILL BE SMALL AND TEMPORARY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 135 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2025
CAM MODELING SUGGESTS POPS ARE AGAIN WARRANTED TODAY, BUT ALL
MODELS SHOW A DOWNTICK ESPECIALLY AFTER TODAY. LIGHTNING AND
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY GENERAL RISK
THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS. THE STORM CHANCE OFFERS ABOUT THE ONLY
RELIEF TO WHAT WILL OTHERWISE BE A HOT/HUMID WEEK. DAILY HEAT
INDICES, EVEN IF WE UNDER-ACHIEVE, SHOULD BE IN THE TRIPLE
DIGITS, AND IN OUR SOUTHWEST,VALUES WILL BE NEARER WARNING
CRITERIA, ESP GIVEN THE 5 DEGREE LOWER TRESHOLD FOR PROLONGED
DURATION HEAT, AS WE HAVE THIS WEEK. THIS AND COLLAB LED TO US
GOING AHEAD AND ADDING OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES TO THE HEADLINE,
AS PROLONGED DURATION TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT AT MINIMUM LOOKS TO BE
AN INCREASING CERTAINTY.
LOOKING AHEAD, A SMALL UPTICK IN POPS LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND, MAY BRING THE BEST CHANCE TO BREAK THE HEAT HEADLINES,
BY JUST A TAD...BEFORE ANOTHER SWELL OF HEAT/HUMIDITY BUILDS IN
AGAIN THEREAFTER. THIS IS REFLECTED BY THE WPC OUTLOOK OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS INTO THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 135 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2025
LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING LOOK TO STAY JUST SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE TERMINALS. PATCHY FOG MAY IMPACT ANY TERMINAL, BUT
ESP PRONE LOCALES LIKE KCGI/KMVN HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES PEAK DURING MAX
HEATING AGAIN TODAY, ESP NEARER KCGI/KPAH TERMINALS. THESE WILL
OFFER THE CHANCE FOR LOWER VFR BASES AND POTENTIALLY MVFR BASES
WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS TO VSBYS SHOULD A STORM OCCUR.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR ILZ075>078-082-083-
086-087-090-091.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR ILZ080-081-
084-085-088-089-092>094.
MO...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR MOZ076-086-
087-100-107>112-114.
IN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT /8 PM EDT/ THURSDAY FOR INZ081-
082-085>088.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR KYZ007-010>022.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR KYZ001>006-
008-009.
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