387
FXUS63 KPAH 221758
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1258 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- EXCESSIVE HEAT HEADLINES COVER THE ENTIRETY OF THE REGION FOR
THE BULK OF THE WEEK.
- THE ONLY RELIEF FROM THE HEAT WILL BE DAILY THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES, WHICH WILL BE SMALL AND TEMPORARY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 135 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2025
CAM MODELING SUGGESTS POPS ARE AGAIN WARRANTED TODAY, BUT ALL
MODELS SHOW A DOWNTICK ESPECIALLY AFTER TODAY. LIGHTNING AND
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY GENERAL RISK
THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS. THE STORM CHANCE OFFERS ABOUT THE ONLY
RELIEF TO WHAT WILL OTHERWISE BE A HOT/HUMID WEEK. DAILY HEAT
INDICES, EVEN IF WE UNDER-ACHIEVE, SHOULD BE IN THE TRIPLE
DIGITS, AND IN OUR SOUTHWEST,VALUES WILL BE NEARER WARNING
CRITERIA, ESP GIVEN THE 5 DEGREE LOWER TRESHOLD FOR PROLONGED
DURATION HEAT, AS WE HAVE THIS WEEK. THIS AND COLLAB LED TO US
GOING AHEAD AND ADDING OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES TO THE HEADLINE,
AS PROLONGED DURATION TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT AT MINIMUM LOOKS TO BE
AN INCREASING CERTAINTY.
LOOKING AHEAD, A SMALL UPTICK IN POPS LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND, MAY BRING THE BEST CHANCE TO BREAK THE HEAT HEADLINES,
BY JUST A TAD...BEFORE ANOTHER SWELL OF HEAT/HUMIDITY BUILDS IN
AGAIN THEREAFTER. THIS IS REFLECTED BY THE WPC OUTLOOK OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS INTO THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2025
LOW CHANCE OF TSRA CHANCES EXISTS FOR CGI AND PAH THIS AFTERNOON
WITH ELSEWHERE LIKELY STAYING DRY. VFR WILL PREVAIL THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH
TEMPO GROUPS FOR MVFR VISBY AT THE TERMINALS. VFR EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 5 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR ILZ075>078-082-083-
086-087-090-091.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR ILZ080-081-
084-085-088-089-092>094.
MO...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR MOZ076-086-
087-100-107>112-114.
IN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT /8 PM EDT/ THURSDAY FOR INZ081-
082-085>088.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR KYZ007-010>022.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR KYZ001>006-
008-009.
DISCUSSION...PREVIOUS FORECASTER
AVIATION...AD
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