786
FXUS63 KPAH 222335
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
635 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAT HEADLINES ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY FOR ENTIRE
REGION.
- THE ONLY RELIEF FROM THE HEAT WILL BE DAILY THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES, WHICH WILL BE SMALL AND TEMPORARY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2025
PERSISTENT RIDGE PATTERN CENTERED OVER THE REGION WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THIS WEEK FOSTERING A HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS WITH DAILY
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S AND HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 105-112
DEGREES. HEAT HEADLINES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE REGION
WITH A EXTREME HEAT WARNING COVERING ALL OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI,
PORTIONS OF WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS, WITH HEAT
ADVISORIES ELSEWHERE. THESE HEADLINES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THURSDAY. UPPER RIDGING TODAY WILL LIKELY KEEP A GOOD
PORTION OF THE REGION RAIN FREE. HOWEVER, LATEST ANALYSIS AND
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS SLIGHTLY ELEVATED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI SOUTHERN ILLINOIS, AND WESTERN
KENTUCKY TIED TO A BOUNDARY TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THESE AREAS FROM NOW THROUGH EARLY
EVENING.
RIDGING ALOFT EXPANDS FURTHER MID TO LATE WEEK SUPPRESSING
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE, AND LEADING TO TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S. MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL TOP
OUT IN THE 105 TO 112 DEGREE RANGE. RIDGING BREAKS DOWN THIS
WEEKEND WHICH WILL LIKELY SUPPORT AT LEAST A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. ADDITIONALLY, TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY COOL OFF BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES. STILL, HEAT INDICES ARE
EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE 105-110 RANGE, SO LIMITED RELIEF IN
TERMS OF THE HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS. DEEP LAYER RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE PLAINS AGAIN NEXT WEEK. THIS BRINGS A RETURN OF
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2025
A FEW STRAY SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY IMPACT THE PAH TAF SITE FOR
THE FIRST HOUR OR SO OF THIS TAF ISSUANCE; OTHERWISE, NOT
EXPECTING MUCH PRECIPITATION FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
CLEARING SKIES AND CALM WINDS TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO SOME PATCHY
GROUND FOG, ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN FELL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. A
FEW DIURNAL CU WILL BE AROUND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BASES
AROUND 4KFT WITH LIGHT WINDS.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR ILZ075>078-082-083-
086-087-090-091.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR ILZ080-081-
084-085-088-089-092>094.
MO...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR MOZ076-086-
087-100-107>112-114.
IN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT /8 PM EDT/ THURSDAY FOR INZ081-
082-085>088.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR KYZ007-010>022.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR KYZ001>006-
008-009.
DISCUSSION...AD
AVIATION...KC
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