745
FXUS63 KPAH 062313
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
613 PM CDT WED AUG 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES MAY RESULT IN PATCHY FOG
AGAIN TONIGHT.
- DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY, WITH
BETTER CHANCES LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE A LITTLE FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 613 PM CDT WED AUG 6 2025
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT WED AUG 6 2025
A FEW VERY SMALL LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ARE POPPING UP THIS
AFTERNOON. THEY ARE VERY BRIEF AND WILL FIZZLE OUT BETWEEN
22Z-00Z WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
OUR REGION WILL REMAIN SANDWICHED BETWEEN A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF TO
OUR EAST AND A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE UPPER TROF WILL PUSH OFF THE
COAST THIS WEEKEND, ALLOWING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO BUILD OVER
THE LOWER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THESE FEATURES WILL KEEP THE WEATHER ACROSS OUR
REGION FAIRLY BENIGN TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT, WE MAY SEE SOME FOG
DEVELOP IN THE 2AM-8AM TIME FRAME, AND PATCHY DENSE FOG IS
POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE ALONG WITH PRETTY
TYPICAL HUMIDITY LEVELS FOR EARLY AUGUST.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, MODELS SHOW A SURFACE LOW PUSHING ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA, WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY 12Z MONDAY. MODELS
SHOW THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY POTENTIALLY MOVING INTO THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS BY TUESDAY. ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL BE CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
BASED ON THE CURRENT TIMING, THIS WOULD BE LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY FOR THE PAH FORECAST AREA, WITH JUST ISOLATED CHANCES ON
MONDAY. PRECIPITATION TIMING OVERALL REMAINS IN QUESTION BASED ON
JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT CAN PROGRESS, COMPETING WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS OUR REGION. INCREASED SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PUSH BOTH TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS
UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 613 PM CDT WED AUG 6 2025
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION WILL BRING CALM OR LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. PREDAWN FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AGAIN, WITH PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS
FORECAST AT ALL TERMINALS IN THE 09-13Z WINDOW. SKIES WILL BE
GENERALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT, WITH DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED
TO BEGIN AROUND 13-15Z, WITH BASES AROUND 5000FT.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
UPDATE...DWS
DISCUSSION...RST
AVIATION...DWS
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