606
FXUS63 KPAH 121142
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
642 AM CDT TUE AUG 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TYPICAL SUMMER-TIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WORK WEEK. DAILY HIGHS WILL PRIMARILY BE IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S THROUGH THURSDAY. HEAT INDEX READINGS MAY REACH
100 IN SOME PLACES TODAY, BUT SHOULD HOLD IN THE 90S WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE QUAD STATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEN CHANCES WILL BE
FOCUSED OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION THURSDAY.
LIGHTNING AND BRIEF TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORMS
THIS WEEK.
- IT WILL BE DRY ACROSS THE QUAD STATE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY,
AND A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
INTO THE MIDDLE 90S OVER THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY, WHILE HEAT
INDEX READINGS CLIMB INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS EACH AFTERNOON. MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 105.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT TUE AUG 12 2025
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS SURGING BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS THE QUAD
STATE EARLY THIS MORNING, AND THAT HAS RESULTED IN AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.
THE 00Z AND LATER GUIDANCE IS NOT DOING VERY WELL WITH THE
LOCATION OF THIS ACTIVITY, BUT IT SHOULD PUSH NORTH OR NORTHEAST
THROUGH SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND POSSIBLY INTO THE EVANSVILLE TRI
STATE THROUGH SUNRISE, WHEN GUIDANCE HAS IT DISSIPATING. BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN NOTED WITH
THIS EARLY MORNING CONVECTION.
GIVEN THE INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, WE SHOULD SEE MORE
CLOUDS THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED TODAY, AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE A GOOD BET. IF TEMPERATURES CAN REACH THE
LOWER 90S, ENHANCED DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON COULD PUSH HEAT
INDICES TO NEAR 100.
WITH THE ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND A MID/UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING, POPS SEEM
UNDERDONE ACROSS THE QUAD STATE TODAY. 60% OR BETTER POPS SEEM
WARRANTED, BUT THERE WAS LITTLE GUIDANCE TO SUPPORT THAT AT THIS
TIME. THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE FOCUSED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE DAY, THEN IT WILL
INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
BRIEF TORRENTIAL RAIN, LIGHTNING, AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
THE UPPER TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION WEDNESDAY, SO CHANCE POPS CONTINUE, WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES IN WEST KENTUCKY. 20-30% POPS LINGER INTO THURSDAY, AS
WELL, WITH THE BEST CHANCES AGAIN OVER WEST KENTUCKY.
AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND, HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS AND OVER THE QUAD STATE. THIS
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PREVENT CONVECTION FRIDAY THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY, AND POSSIBLY INTO NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION,
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE MIDDLE 90S OVER
THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY. HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY
CLIMB INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS, BUT SHOULD HOLD JUST UNDER THE HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 105 DEGREES.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT TUE AUG 12 2025
SCATTERED TSRA ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AT KEVV AND KOWB. ANOTHER ROUND OF TSRA WILL MOVE
EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO IFR OR
MVFR CONDITIONS IN STORMS. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING IS NOT GREAT
FOR EITHER TIME PERIOD. SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT, IF/WHEN SKIES CAN CLEAR BEHIND THE CONVECTION,
ESPECIALLY AT SITES THAT RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EARLIER
IN THE PERIOD.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...DRS
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