586
FXUS63 KPAH 122004
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
304 PM CDT TUE AUG 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TYPICAL SUMMER-TIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WORK WEEK. DAILY HIGHS WILL PRIMARILY BE IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S THROUGH THURSDAY.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
FOR MOST AREAS, BEFORE DECREASING CHANCES ON THURSDAY FOCUSED
ON MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION.
- DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID 90S. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
RISE INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT TUE AUG 12 2025
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S.
THIS AFTERNOON AND IS RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. CAN'T RULE OUT BRIEF GUSTY WINDS IN
SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPPER TROUGH AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED CHANCES OF
RAIN/STORMS. BY THURSDAY, THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.
MOST OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY WITH SLIGHT CHANCES
ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION.
HEIGHTS BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK AND ESPECIALLY
OVER THE WEEKEND LEADING TO INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL RISE INTO
THE MID 90S WITH HEAT INDICES LIKELY CLIMBING INTO THE TRIPLE
DIGITS. LOCALIZED HEAT INDICES MAY APPROACH 105 DEGREES
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THE
RIDGE SHOWS SIGNS OF BREAKING DOWN. THIS MAY LEAD TO A SLOW
INCREASE IN CONVECTION BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN HOT
WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE MID 90S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT TUE AUG 12 2025
CONVECTION WILL BE THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN THIS TAF PERIOD
WITH VCTS AND/OR PROB30 FOR ALL SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING. LESS CONFIDENCE ON ACTIVITY AFTER 00Z BUT THERE MAY
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY STILL ONGOING. OTHERWISE
CU WITH BASES 045-050 WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. FOG IS
POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH IFR CONDITIONS MENTIONED AT
CGI. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AD
AVIATION...AD
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