059
FXUS63 KPAH 151118
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
618 AM CDT FRI AUG 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS BACK AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY. DAILY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
90S...WHILE MAXIMUM AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM 100-105 EACH DAY.
- AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER
THE SOUTHERN PENNYRILE REGION OF WEST KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON,
AND ALONG THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE, IT SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH TUESDAY.
- THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY WILL BRING AN END TO THE
HEAT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK TOWARD NORMAL LEVELS, AND
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT FRI AUG 15 2025
A 500MB RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH SATURDAY AND
THEN LINGER OVERHEAD BEFORE WEAKENING TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE,
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WEAK WHICH WILL KEEP WINDS
VERY LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES ARE
GOING TO INCREASE, WITH THE LATEST NBM INDICATING MIDDLE TO
UPPER 90S THROUGHOUT THE QUAD STATE TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST IS HOW MUCH DEWPOINTS WILL
MIX DOWN AS A RESULT OF THE INCREASED HEAT AND ASSOCIATED
DEEPER MIXING? KPOF AND KCGI MIXED DOWN TO 67 AND 66,
RESPECTIVELY YESTERDAY, AND WITH DEEPER MIXING EXPECTED, THAT
TREND SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER,
THE NBM HOLDS DEWPOINTS NEAR 70, IF NOT IN THE LOWER 70S TODAY.
THE TREND IN ALMOST ALL GUIDANCE HEADING THROUGH THE WEEKEND IS
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS, DESPITE INCREASING TEMPERATURES.
A FEW ISOLATED LOCATIONS MAY SEE HEAT INDICES REACH 105 DEGREE
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WE EXPECT MOST PLACES TO HOLD CLOSER TO
100. SO, THERE WILL BE NO HEAT ADVISORY ISSUED FOR TODAY. AFTER
WE SEE HOW THE DEWPOINTS BEHAVE TODAY, IT MAY GIVE SOME CLARITY
ON THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAT HEADLINES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK. AT THE LEAST, MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD REACH THE
4-DAY DURATION CRITERIA OF 100 BY SUNDAY OR MONDAY.
MOST OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE TUESDAY
AND THEN BRINGS AN UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY FOR A WHILE, AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE QUAD STATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT FRI AUG 15 2025
MVFR FOG MAY NEED AN HOUR TO DISSIPATE THIS MORNING. FOG
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO KOWB AND KPAH. ONLY
WENT TO IFR AT KPAH, LEAVING MVFR AT KOWB.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...DRS
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