991
FXUS63 KPAH 152306
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
606 PM CDT FRI AUG 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- PROLONGED DURATION HEAT AND HUMIDITY BUILDS AND BUILDS THRU
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS TEMPERATURES SOAR THRU
THE 90S, WITH LINGERING HIGH HUMIDITY, HEAT INDICES APPROACH
OR EXCEED THE TRIPLE DIGITS DAILY.
- THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY WILL FINALLY END THE
PROLONGED DURATION HEAT AS TEMPERATURES FALL BACK TOWARD
NORMAL LEVELS AND DAILY STORM CHANCES RETURN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT FRI AUG 15 2025
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD AND CENTER OVER THE AREA
THRU THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PEAK
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE, PERHAPS EVEN UPPER 90S, AND EVEN IF
DEW POINTS MIX DOWN A LITTLE DAILY, IT'LL STILL RESULT IN HEAT
INDICES APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING THE TRIPLE DIGITS. HEAT
HEADLINES SEEM TO COME INTO PLAY AS THIS PEAK OCCURS, ESP
SUNDAY-MONDAY, BUT ADJACENT DAYS IT MAY BE IN PLAY AS
WELL...WILL LET ONGOING CONDITIONS AND COLLABORATIVE EFFORTS
DRIVE THAT DECISION WITH TIME.
THE CHANCE FOR DAILY STORMS GOES SILENT OVER THIS HEATING
PERIOD, BUT IS NOT ZERO. IT'LL BE HARD TO GET UPDRAFTS TO
SUSTAIN UNDERNEATH THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC SINK IT HAS TO
OVERCOME, WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS PUSHING THE CONVECTIVE TEMP UP
INTO THE MID 90S AS WELL. ANY STORM THAT DOES OCCUR WILL OFFER
ONLY TEMPORARY, ALBEIT STEAMY RELIEF.
MOST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE TUESDAY AS AN UPPER
TROUGH AND SURFACE REFLECTED COLD FRONT MAKES PASSAGE PASSAGE
BY MID WEEK. THIS BRINGS TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY BACK CLOSER
TO SEASONAL NORMALS AS THE WEEK CLOSES OUT, ALONG WITH A DAILY
CHANCE OF STORMS. RAIN WILL BE WELCOME BY THEN, AS THE NEW 8-14
DAY POTENTIAL HAZARDS OUTLOOK INDICATES RAPID ONSET DROUGHT
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING DURING THIS HEAT WAVE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 606 PM CDT FRI AUG 15 2025
TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING WITH MVFR VSBY
REDUCTIONS. FEW CU AROUND 5 KFT AGL WILL THEN DEVELOP BY MIDDAY
DURING PEAKING HEATING. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AROUND
5 KTS.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...DW
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