932
FXUS63 KPAH 161740
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1240 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- PROLONGED DURATION HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACHING OR
EXCEEDING THE TRIPLE DIGITS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. A HEAT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE QUAD STATE REGION
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
- THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY WILL FINALLY END THE
PROLONGED DURATION HEAT AS TEMPERATURES FALL BACK TOWARD
NORMAL LEVELS AND DAILY STORM CHANCES RETURN.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2025
UPDATED THE AVIATION SECTION FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT SAT AUG 16 2025
VERY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING/HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
QUAD STATE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES LIMITED TO ONLY ISOLATED (10-15%) CHANCES DURING PEAK
HEATING EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABLE TO WARM TO THE MID TO UPPER 90S UNDER THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE
WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES INCREASING FROM AROUND 100 DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON TO AROUND 105 DEGREES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. DECIDED TO
GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IN SHORT...IT IS GOING TO BE HOT!
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE RIDGE DAMPENING OR BREAKING
DOWN BY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER RIDGE
BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO SAG SOUTH INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, WHICH WILL
BRING A BREAK IN THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY ALONG WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS. TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK WILL PULL BACK TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S. AT LEAST A BIT OF
RELIEF IS IN SIGHT! DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL ONLY GET WORSE WITH THE
EXTREME HEAT THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WITH VERY LITTLE
RAINFALL.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2025
PATCHY GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE NIGHT TO EARLY MORNING.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SCATTERED MID-LEVEL
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON IS FORECAST, AND AGAIN
TOMORROW. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST, BECOMING CALM
OVERNIGHT. RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, NOR
PROJECTED TO MAKE IT INTO THE EVANSVILLE TRI-STATE AREA FROM
CENTRAL INDIANA/ILLINOIS TONIGHT.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114.
IN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT /8 PM EDT/ TUESDAY FOR INZ081-082-
085>088.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR KYZ001>022.
UPDATE...ATL
DISCUSSION...KC
AVIATION...ATL
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page