849
FXUS63 KPAH 170425
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1125 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- PROLONGED DURATION HEAT AND HUMIDITY REMAINS THROUGH EARLY
WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND HEAT INDICES
EXCEEDING THE TRIPLE DIGITS THROUGH TUESDAY. A HEAT ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE QUAD STATE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
- A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON;
OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY.
- THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY WILL FINALLY END THE
PROLONGED DURATION HEAT AS TEMPERATURES FALL BACK TOWARD
NORMAL LEVELS AND DAILY STORM CHANCES RETURN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2025
A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED NEARBY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE REACHED THE MID TO UPPER
90S THROUGH THE QUAD STATE. DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
MIDDAY PUSHED HEAT INDICES TO OVER 100 FOR MUCH OF THE QUAD
STATE, THOUGH SOME SITES HAVE SINCE HAD SURFACE MIXING OF DRYER
AIR LOWERING DEW POINTS TO THE 60S THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY IN
THE PENNYRILE. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH SCATTERED
AFTERNOON CLOUDS. OVERNIGHT, A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS PUSHES
SOUTHWARD THROUGH INDIANA, REPRESENTED IN MANY OF THE CAMS, BUT
FIZZLES OUT ON APPROACH TO SW INDIANA (WHILE OTHER MODELS TAKE
THE LINE FURTHER EAST).
SUNDAY BRINGS SIMILAR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING, THOUGH
SOME MODELS HAVE A LOCALIZED AREA OF VORTICITY DEVELOPING A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI APPEARS TO HAVE THE SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF RECEIVING
RAIN FROM THIS COMPARED TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE QUAD STATE.
AFTERWARDS, DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR MONDAY-TUESDAY WITH
CONTINUED HEAT. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH A
COMBINATION OF DAILY CHANCES TO REACH A HEAT INDEX OF 105 AND
THE DURATION POTENTIAL OF 100+. DEWPOINTS AREN'T NEARLY AS
IMPRESSIVE AS THE LATTER HALF OF JULY, BUT CONDITIONS ARE DRIER
NOW, ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO SURGE TO THEIR WARMEST OF THE
SUMMER DURING THIS STRETCH OF HEAT. A FEW 100S WILL OCCUR IN
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED SPOTS (SUCH AS THE RAWS SITE AT BIG
SPRING NEAR VAN BUREN, MO), BUT THE FORECAST WAS NUDGED A BIT
LOWER ON TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THE NBM, KEEPING MOST
LOCATIONS TO HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.
THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
TUESDAY NIGHT, AS ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDS IN THE WEST. A COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE PRIMARY ISSUE, WITH A D4-D5
MARGINAL RISK ERO, THOUGH TRAINING STORMS DON'T APPEAR TO BE AN
ISSUE. TEMPERATURES DROP TO BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE WEEK FOLLOWING
THIS FRONT WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2025
PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR VSBY REDUCTIONS REMAINS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
MORNING; OTHERWISE, TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
MORNING WITH SCATTERED CU AROUND 6 KFT AGL DEVELOPING BY MIDDAY.
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON, WITH THE
GREATEST RISK ACROSS THE WESTERN TERMINALS.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114.
IN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT /8 PM EDT/ TUESDAY FOR INZ081-082-
085>088.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR KYZ001>022.
DISCUSSION...ATL
AVIATION...DW
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