026
FXUS63 KPAH 171129
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
629 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- PROLONGED DURATION HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL LINGER THROUGH
EARLY WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND HEAT INDICES
EXCEEDING THE TRIPLE DIGITS THROUGH TUESDAY. A HEAT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE QUAD STATE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
- A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON;
OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY.
- THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO FALL BACK TOWARD NORMAL LEVELS AS DAILY STORM CHANCES
RETURN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2025
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING/HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE QUAD
STATE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES LIMITED TO ONLY ISOLATED (10-15%) CHANCES DURING PEAK
HEATING EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS ARE KEYING IN ON AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SLIDING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA TODAY, WHICH MAY HELP TO FOCUS/INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS (15-30%). HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
TO THE MID TO UPPER 90S UNDER THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES RANGING FROM AROUND 100 TO 108 DEGREES THROUGH TUESDAY.
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE HEAT ADVISORY WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONUS. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SAG SOUTH INTO THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, WHICH WILL BRING A BREAK IN THE
HEAT AND HUMIDITY ALONG WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A THREAT WITH ANY STORMS
AND THE AREA IS OUTLOOKED FOR A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK WILL PULL BACK TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2025
PATCHY GROUND FOG WILL IMPACT THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS MAY RESULT IN BRIEF
MVFR VISIBILITIES AROUND 5SM AT TIMES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS (20-30% CHANCE) WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON. ADDED A PROB30 GROUP AT EACH SITE TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE INCREASED CHANCE ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
OTHERWISE, LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH OVERALL GOOD FLYING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114.
IN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT /8 PM EDT/ TUESDAY FOR INZ081-082-
085>088.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR KYZ001>022.
DISCUSSION...KC
AVIATION...KC
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