400
FXUS63 KPAH 180351
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1051 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- PROLONGED DURATION HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL LINGER THROUGH
EARLY WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND HEAT INDICES
EXCEEDING THE TRIPLE DIGITS THROUGH TUESDAY. A HEAT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE QUAD STATE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
- WHILE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, IT'S A MOSTLY DRY
PERIOD DURING THIS PROLONGED HEAT WAVE.
- THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO FALL BACK TOWARD MORE SEASONALLY NORMAL LEVELS AS SCATTERED
DAILY STORM CHANCES RETURN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2025
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAFS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2025
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL UNDERGO PATTERN METAMORPHOSIS THIS
WEEK. MEAN PRESSURE STAYS HIGH THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN EARLY THIS
WEEK, RESULTING IN THE CONTINUED BUILDUP OF HEAT/HUMIDITY WITH
OUR PROLONGED DURATION HEAT HEADLINES CONTINUING THRU THE DAY
TUESDAY. WHILE A SMALL CHANCE OF STORMS EXISTS, ANY RELIEF FROM
SUCH WILL BE TEMPORARY AND OF LITTLE OVERALL IMPACT, AS EVEN
AFTER A HEAVY RAIN, IT'LL JUST BE UNBEARABLY WARM AND
STEAMY/MUGGY. DAILY HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S COMBINED WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDICES INTO
ADVISORY LEVELS.
SLOWLY BUT SURELY, THE PATTERN METAMORPHOSIS MATERIALIZES OVER
THE BACK HALF OF THE WEEK, AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
RETROGRADES AND ANCHORS/BUILDS FURTHER OVER THE WESTERN CONUS,
WHILE LONG WAVE TROFFING DEEPENS AND ENVELOPS THE EASTERN
CONUS. WE GET MORE OF THAT TROFFING PLAY ACTION INFLUENCE, WITH
A RELATIVELY DRIER NORTHERLY TRAJECTORY FETCH UNDERNEATH
FALLING HEIGHTS THAT WILL DRAW TEMPS AND DEW POINTS BACK TO
ABOUT WHERE THEY SHOULD BE FROM A SEASONALLY NORMAL STANDPOINT,
CLOSER TO 90F FOR HIGHS AND INTO THE UPPER 60S FOR DEW POINTS.
ALONG WITH THIS CHANGE, SCATTERED DAILY GENERAL RISK THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES RE-EMERGE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2025
PATCHY GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING, WITH BRIEF VSBY REDUCTIONS TO MVFR/IFR. OTHERWISE
JUST SOME SCT HIGH CLOUD TO CONTEND WITH OVERNIGHT. FEW-SCT CU
DEVELOP LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW. CAN'T RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM DURING THE AFTERNOON, BUT THE
POSSIBILITY MAY END UP BEING HIGHEST IN THE MISSOURI OZARK
FOOTHILLS, WEST OF ALL THE TERMINALS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERALL GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114.
IN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT /8 PM EDT/ TUESDAY FOR INZ081-082-
085>088.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR KYZ001>022.
UPDATE...SP
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...SP
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