002
FXUS63 KPAH 191131
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
631 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ONE MORE DAY OF DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES RANGING BETWEEN 100
AND 108 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW OF
THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
- A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO FALL BACK TOWARD NORMAL LEVELS. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND SIGNIFICANTLY
REDUCING TEMPERATURES AND DROPPING HUMIDITY LEVELS. IT WILL
FEEL VERY FALL-LIKE LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK!
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2025
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS KEPT US VERY HOT AND HUMID OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN LATER TODAY AS A
SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES, THEN PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN REACH THE 100-108 DEGREE RANGE FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH LED TO THE CONTINUATION OF
THE HEAT ADVISORY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL SAG THROUGH THE AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH INTO TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTH OF THE
AREA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY,
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED (40-50% CHANCE).
VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH LOCALIZED TOTALS APPROACHING AN INCH IN
THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THE AREA IS OUTLOOKED FOR A
MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED
DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE QUAD STATE AREA.
INSTABILITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE UP TO 3K J/KG ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONT, PLENTY TO PRODUCE STRONG UPDRAFTS. DRIER AIR IN THE
MID LEVELS ALONG WITH AN INVERTED V TYPE SOUNDING BELOW 800MB ALL
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR COLDER/MORE DENSE DOWNDRAFTS IN ANY
COLLAPSING PULSE-TYPE STORM. THE MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING STILL LOOKS GOOD FROM THE SPC.
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN THEN BE EXPECTED WITH DRIER WEATHER
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. A STRONG, MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
BRINGING AN EARLY TASTE OF FALL-LIKE WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
IN FACT, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ON SUNDAY DROPPING TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW
80S BY MONDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE 50S!!
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2025
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. KEPT THE PROB30 GROUP GOING AT EACH
TAF SITE TO ACCOUNT FOR LIMITED COVERAGE. THE SHOWERS WILL TAPER
OFF OVERNIGHT WITH A WIND SHIFT EXPECTED TO THE NORTH AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT OUTSIDE OF ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ILZ075>078-
080>094.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114.
IN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT /8 PM EDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ001>022.
DISCUSSION...KC
AVIATION...KC
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