738
FXUS63 KPAH 192338
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
638 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON WITH HEAT INDICES OVER
100.
- SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND DOWNBURSTS.
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND DRIER WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, THEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TO START OFF NEXT
WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2025
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 209 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2025
A HEAT ADVISORY IS STILL IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON FOR CONTINUED HEAT
INDICES OF 100-115. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS BREAKING DOWN THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. THERE IS A MARGINAL EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK FOR THIS
AFTERNOON WITH PWATS OF 1.7 TO 1.9. THIS MEANS THERE COULD BE HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AT TIMES WITHIN THESE STORMS. SPC HAS US IN A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY FOR DOWNBURST POTENTIAL. CURRENT
MESOANALYSIS SUPPORTS 3,500 TO 4,500 J/KG OF SBCAPE ACROSS THE AREA,
WITH LITTLE TO NO BULK SHEAR, AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND
8.5 DEGC/KM ALONG WITH THE PRESENCE OF INVERTED V SOUNDINGS. THIS
ALL SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS VIA DOWNBURSTS OF
COLLAPSING PULSE STORMS.
BEHIND THE FRONT EXPECT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY AND
DRIER CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S THROUGH
SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AND BRINGS EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES TO START OFF THE WEEK.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70 TO LOWER 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE 50S!
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2025
SCATTERED CONVECTION, PRIMARILY FOCUSED ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES NOW, IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE NNE
TOMORROW MORNING, EVENTUALLY BECOMING SUSTAINED 8-11 KTS IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS OF 15-18 KTS POSSIBLE. SOME GUIDANCE
IS HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOWER CIGS IN THE
MORNING, WITH KCGI/KPAH APPEARING MOST LIKELY TO SEE THEM. HAVE
INCLUDED MENTION OF MVFR CIGS FOR NOW. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO
POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY IN THOSE AREAS THAT OBSERVED RAIN, IF WE
CAN MANAGE MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TOWARDS SUNRISE.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ILZ075>078-
080>094.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114.
IN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT /8 PM EDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ001>022.
UPDATE...SP
DISCUSSION...HICKFORD
AVIATION...SP
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