062
FXUS63 KPAH 082252
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
552 PM CDT MON SEP 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AS THE WEEK WEARS ON, WITH 90S MAKING A
RETURN BY THURSDAY, AND MID 90S POTENTIAL OVER THE WEEKEND.
- A WEEK OF DRY WEATHER IN STORE WILL HEIGHTEN FIRE DANGER AS
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES PLUMMET INTO THE 20S AND 30S
PERCENTILE DAILY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT MON SEP 8 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE ENTIRETY OF THE OHIO VALLEY
EARLY THIS WEEK. ITS FLOW KEEPS WARM ADVECTION AT BAY FOR
ANOTHER DAY, BEFORE RETURN FLOW AND BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS
START TO HEAT US UP AGAIN. SO IN THE SHORT TERM, THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER FEATURES OF NOTE, OTHER THAN THE SPECTACULAR ENJOYMENT
OF ONE MORE DAY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 40S, AND HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE 70S, APPROACHING 80 DEGREES, INCLUDES THE CONTINUED DRY
ENVIRON PRODUCING DAILY RH MINIMUMS IN THE 20S-30S PERCENTILE,
AND THE NIGHTLY FOG PATCHES THAT GUIDANCE HINTS AT DAILY.
SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION WITH TIME, BRIEFLY AFOREMENTIONED IN
PART, PRODUCES AN ALMOST OMEGA-LIKE BLOCKING PATTERN HERE BY
WEEK'S END. H5 HEIGHTS CRANK TOWARD 590 DM, WHILE AMPLIFIED LONG
WAVE TROFFING BLASTS THE WEST AND EAST COASTS. THIS WILL LEAD
TO A STRONG WARMUP HEADING INTO MID SEPTEMBER, AS WE SEE H8
TEMPS AROUND 8C THIS MORNING OUT OF THE 12Z NASHVILLE
SOUNDING...WITH THE MODELS ALL INDICATING A MARKED RISE TO MORE
THAN TWICE THAT BY THIS WEEKEND. THAT WILL BE PUSHING OUR HIGHS
INTO THE 90S BY AS EARLY AS THURSDAY, WITH MID 90S BY THE
WEEKEND. FORTUNATELY, DEW POINTS REBOUND THRU THE 50S, BUT
STRUGGLE TO PASS 60F, AND WITH THE LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE UNDER
THE MID MS VALLEY CENTERED RIDGE, WE'LL STAY DRY. THAT KEEPS
DAILY RH MINIMUMS A FIRE PLANNING RISK, ESP WITH DROUGHT
CONDITIONS CONTINUING UNABATED.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 549 PM CDT MON SEP 8 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE TRANQUIL WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY VFR FOR AREA TERMINALS. BRIEF PERIODS OF
MIFG IS POSSIBLE IN MORE FOG PRONE LOCATIONS SUCH AS CGI AND MVN
TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH A VEERING NORTHEAST
TO SOUTHEAST WIND EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH MAGNITUDES UP TO
AROUND 5 KTS.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PREVIOUS FCTER
AVIATION...AD
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