415
FXUS63 KPAH 090758
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
258 AM CDT TUE SEP 9 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS THE WEEK WEARS ON,
WITH 90S MAKING A RETURN BY THURSDAY, AND MID 90S POTENTIAL
OVER THE WEEKEND.
- A WEEK OF DRY WEATHER IN STORE WILL HEIGHTEN FIRE DANGER AS
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES PLUMMET INTO THE 20S AND 30S
PERCENTILE DAILY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT TUE SEP 9 2025
ONE LAST WELL BELOW NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURE MORNING IS FORECAST
TODAY AS A VERY LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. DRY AIR AND LOW SOIL MOISTURES WITH
DEVELOPING DROUGHT WILL YIELD COMMONPLACE LOWS IN THE 40S,
THOUGH HOLDING SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY MORNING. A COUPLE
MODELS (NAM AND HRRR) SHOW A SMALL DISTURBANCE DRIFTING INTO THE
AREA BRINGING A SMATTERING OF LIGHT SHOWERS THIS EVENING IN OR
NEAR SEMO, BUT THE LOWEST KM IS DRY ENOUGH THAT THIS SHOULD, AT
THE MOST, JUST BE VIRGA.
THIS WEEK FEATURES A STEADY WARMING TREND AS TROUGHING SLOWLY
GETS DISPLACED NORTHEASTWARD AS RIDGING BUILDS IN THE PLAINS. AN
OMEGA PATTERN LOOKS CLEANEST THURSDAY, BUT MODELS DIFFER ON
CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPMENT OFF THE EAST COAST AND DON'T HOLD AN
OMEGA PATTERN FOR LONG EVEN AS RIDGING REMAINS. TEMPERATURES
RISE TO NEAR NORMAL TODAY/TONIGHT, THEN CONTINUE TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW 90S LATE WEEK AND INTO THE MID 90S FOR SOME SPOTS OVER
THE WEEKEND. RETURN FLOW LIFTS DEW POINTS TO THE LOWER HALF OF
THE 60S, BUT DRY CONDITIONS KEEP DIURNAL SPREADS AROUND 30-35
DEGREES. THERE IS MINIMAL SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION PRODUCING A
FEW SLIGHT CHANCE POP AREAS EARLY NEXT WEEK; OTHERWISE DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. LATE WEEK/WEEKEND RHS DROP LOW ENOUGH
DURING THE AFTERNOON TO BE NOTEWORTHY FROM A FIRE WEATHER
PERSPECTIVE, BUT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE LIGHT THROUGH THE
FORECAST. CONTINUING DRY CONDITIONS WILL NOT DO ANY FAVORS FOR
OUR DEVELOPING DROUGHT.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 549 PM CDT MON SEP 8 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE TRANQUIL WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY VFR FOR AREA TERMINALS. BRIEF PERIODS OF
MIFG IS POSSIBLE IN MORE FOG PRONE LOCATIONS SUCH AS CGI AND MVN
TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH A VEERING NORTHEAST
TO SOUTHEAST WIND EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH MAGNITUDES UP TO
AROUND 5 KTS.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ATL
AVIATION...AD
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