421
FXUS63 KPAH 091126
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
626 AM CDT TUE SEP 9 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS THE WEEK WEARS ON,
WITH 90S MAKING A RETURN BY THURSDAY, AND MID 90S POTENTIAL
OVER THE WEEKEND.
- A WEEK OF DRY WEATHER IN STORE WILL HEIGHTEN FIRE DANGER AS
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES PLUMMET INTO THE 20S AND 30S
PERCENTILE DAILY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT TUE SEP 9 2025
UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT TUE SEP 9 2025
ONE LAST WELL BELOW NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURE MORNING IS FORECAST
TODAY AS A VERY LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. DRY AIR AND LOW SOIL MOISTURES WITH
DEVELOPING DROUGHT WILL YIELD COMMONPLACE LOWS IN THE 40S,
THOUGH HOLDING SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY MORNING. A COUPLE
MODELS (NAM AND HRRR) SHOW A SMALL DISTURBANCE DRIFTING INTO THE
AREA BRINGING A SMATTERING OF LIGHT SHOWERS THIS EVENING IN OR
NEAR SEMO, BUT THE LOWEST KM IS DRY ENOUGH THAT THIS SHOULD, AT
THE MOST, JUST BE VIRGA.
THIS WEEK FEATURES A STEADY WARMING TREND AS TROUGHING SLOWLY
GETS DISPLACED NORTHEASTWARD AS RIDGING BUILDS IN THE PLAINS. AN
OMEGA PATTERN LOOKS CLEANEST THURSDAY, BUT MODELS DIFFER ON
CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPMENT OFF THE EAST COAST AND DON'T HOLD AN
OMEGA PATTERN FOR LONG EVEN AS RIDGING REMAINS. TEMPERATURES
RISE TO NEAR NORMAL TODAY/TONIGHT, THEN CONTINUE TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW 90S LATE WEEK AND INTO THE MID 90S FOR SOME SPOTS OVER
THE WEEKEND. RETURN FLOW LIFTS DEW POINTS TO THE LOWER HALF OF
THE 60S, BUT DRY CONDITIONS KEEP DIURNAL SPREADS AROUND 30-35
DEGREES. THERE IS MINIMAL SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION PRODUCING A
FEW SLIGHT CHANCE POP AREAS EARLY NEXT WEEK; OTHERWISE DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. LATE WEEK/WEEKEND RHS DROP LOW ENOUGH
DURING THE AFTERNOON TO BE NOTEWORTHY FROM A FIRE WEATHER
PERSPECTIVE, BUT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE LIGHT THROUGH THE
FORECAST. CONTINUING DRY CONDITIONS WILL NOT DO ANY FAVORS FOR
OUR DEVELOPING DROUGHT.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT TUE SEP 9 2025
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. CALM WINDS DURING EARLY MORNING HOURS ONLY
INCREASE TO AROUND 5 KTS OUT OF THE SE/SSE TODAY. SCT HIGH CLOUD
COVERAGE WILL HAVE SLOW LOWERING LATE. THERE'S SOME POTENTIAL
FOR PATCHY GROUND FOG AT CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED SITES LIKE
KCGI EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
UPDATE...ATL
DISCUSSION...ATL
AVIATION...ATL
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