818
FXUS63 KPAH 091735
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1235 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SUMMER-LIKE 90S RETURN TO THE FORECAST SOON AND STICK AROUND
FOR AWHILE.
- A CONDINUED DRY WEATHER FORECAST WILL ONLY EXACERBATE DROUGHT
CONDITIONS AND HEIGHTEN FIRE DANGER AS THE WEEK ENSUES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2025
ONE LAST NICE, CRISP, COOL MORNING WITH 40S FOR LOWS WILL
DISAPPEAR FOR AWHILE NOW, AS THE WARMUP HAS COMMENCED AND SHOWS
NO SOON SIGNS OF ABATEMENT. PATTERN EVOLUTION WILL SEE H5
HEIGHTS RISE TOWARD 590 DM BY WEEK'S END, AS A STOUT HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT CENTERS OVER THE COUNTRY'S MID-SECTION. H8
TEMPS MORE THAN DOUBLE IN THAT SAME TIME FRAME, TRANSLATING TO A
MOVEMENT INTO AND THRU THE 80S STARTING TODAY, PUSHING 90F AS
SOON AS TMRW, AND FIRMLY INTO/RISING 90S HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND, WHEN PEAKS IN THE MID 90S ARE EXPECTED. DEW POINTS IN
THE 40S THIS MORNING REBOUND THRU THE 50S THIS WORK WEEK,
STRUGGLING TOWARD BUT HAVING A HARD TIME GETTING PAST 60F. AN
OVERALL LACK OF MOISTURE UNDER THE SYNOPTIC SCALE SINK OF THE
ANTI-CYCLONE WILL KEEP MOST POPS AT BAY AND SILENT, WHICH WILL
ONLY EXACERBATE OUR CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND HEIGHTEN FIRE
DANGER WITH TIME AS FUELS DRY OUT. FORTUNATELY, THE ANTI-CYCLONE
ALSO KEEPS WINDS GENERALLY AT BAY AS WELL, AND STILL ABUNDANT
LEAFING COVERAGE OFFERS SOME MITIGATING SHELTER TO BOOT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2025
A DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SENSIBLE
WEATHER INFLUENCES DESPITE THE OVERALL GRIP OF HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENING AND KEEPING MOSTLY VISUAL FLIGHT RULES AS THE
PREVAILING FORECAST. DAYTIME HEATING MAY ALLOW FOR GENESIS OF
FEW-SCT BASES AT 5-7K FT AGL, WHILE TIME/HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS
SHOW CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS PERHAPS DROPPING JUST ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT SOME MID-HIGH LEVEL BASE POTENTIAL AS WELL, WRT THE
LIFTING WAVE SEEN ON SATELLITE NEARBY. ABOUT THE ONLY RISK FOR
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SHORT-LIVED DAYBREAK
MIFG (MOST PROBABLE AT PRONE LOCALES), AS GRADUALLY RISING DEW
POINTS NIBBLE INTO THE STILL 4-5+F TDD SPREADS SHOWN IN 3 HOUR
GUIDANCE.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
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