628
FXUS63 KPAH 101131
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
631 AM CDT WED SEP 10 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SUMMER-LIKE 90S RETURN TO THE FORECAST SOON AND STICK AROUND
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- A CONTINUED DRY WEATHER FORECAST WILL ONLY EXACERBATE DROUGHT
CONDITIONS AND HEIGHTEN FIRE DANGER AS THE WEEK ENSUES.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT WED SEP 10 2025
UPDATED THE AVIATION SECTION FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 229 AM CDT WED SEP 10 2025
CLOUDS TRACKING EASTWARD THROUGH THE QUAD STATE HAVE PRODUCED A
FEW SPRINKLES FOR TRACE ACCUMULATIONS AS A FEW MODELS WERE
SUGGESTING. AS RIDGING DEVELOPS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS, THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SPRINKLES TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW AS A WEAK AREA OF VORTICITY ROUNDS THE TROUGH
(SUBSEQUENTLY STRENGTHENING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC), BUT MODEL
AGREEMENT IS LACKING SO WILL HOLD OFF ON THEIR INCLUSION FOR THE
TIME BEING. TEMPERATURES RISE TO NEAR 90 FOR HIGHS TODAY, THEN
CONTINUE RISING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A CLEAN OMEGA BLOCK NEVER QUITE SETS UP
FOR LONG, BUT THE RIDGE SURGING WELL INTO CANADA SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY RESULTS IN HIGHS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S IN
THE QUAD STATE. A SHIFT TOWARDS A LESS NORTHERLY WIND COMPONENT
HAS RESULTED IN MUCH HIGHER DEW POINTS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY
MORNING AND LOWS WILL RISE TO THE LOWER HALF OF THE 60S.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WITH THE NBM REFRAINING FROM
INCLUDING ANY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EARLY NEXT WEEK. DROUGHT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP. LOW SOIL
MOISTURE AND LOW RHS ARE A CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER, THOUGH WIND
SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT WED SEP 10 2025
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE QUAD STATE THIS
MORNING. COVERAGE WILL TREND TOWARDS FEW-SCT LATE IN THE
DAY/TONIGHT. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT, ONLY REACHING 5 KTS TODAY OUT
OF THE SW/WSW. CLEARER SKIES TONIGHT CAN RESULT IN SOME FOG
FORMATION, OR AT LEAST PARTIAL VSBY REDUCTIONS.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
UPDATE...ATL
DISCUSSION...ATL
AVIATION...ATL
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