338
FXUS63 KPAH 101729
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1229 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SUMMER-LIKE 90S RETURN TO THE FORECAST TOMORROW AND STICK
AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- A CONTINUED DRY WEATHER FORECAST WILL ONLY EXACERBATE DROUGHT
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2025
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION CONTINUES TO
LEAD TO SUBSIDENCE AND AND OVERALL DRY WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE
QUAD-STATE. ALL MOISTURE FOR RAIN OF ANY SIGNIFICANT REMAINS
SHUNTED WELL TO THE SOUTH OVER THE GULF. SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE
CREPT UP JUST A LITTLE OVER THE LAST 24-48 HOURS WITH AFTERNOON
MIXING ONLY REDUCING THEM INTO THE LOW 60S AND WE SAW A FEW
SPRINKLES THIS MORNING OVER OWENSBORO/EVANSVILLE BUT
ABNORMALLY/DRY DROUGHT CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN IN PLACE BY AND
LARGE THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW TO OUR
NORTHEAST ADVANCES SOUTHEASTWARD A BIT LEADING TO INCREASING
SURFACE RIDGING OVER GA/NC/VA THAT FURTHER CUTS OFF MOISTURE
RETURN FROM THE EAST. 500MB HEIGHTS INCREASE SLIGHTLY AND
AFTERNOON MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOLLOW SUIT AS WE SHOULD HEAD
ABOVE 90 IN MOST LOCALES TOMORROW AND STAY THAT WAY FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
BY THE WEEKEND WE GET JUST A WHISPER OF DEEPER LOW-LEVEL RETURN
FLOW BUT IT STILL LOOKS INSUFFICIENT FOR APPRECIABLE RAINFALL
AND STRONG MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND SURFACE HEATING WILL LIKELY
MIX OUT ANY SENSIBLE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY/MOISTURE
THAT WOULD LEAD TO HIGHER HEAT INDEX VALUES OR PRECIP CHANCES.
GFS/ECMWF DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS POINT TOWARDS THE
OVERALL 500MB TROUGHING SHIFTING MORE TO THE WEST BY DAY 7-10
THAT COULD RESULT IN A LITTLE DIFFERENT PATTERN, BUT FOR THE
MOST PART IT LOOKS LIKE A SAFE BET TO COUNT ON IT BEING MORE DRY
THAN NOT FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1154 AM CDT WED SEP 10 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE
DAY. PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY DEVELOP IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
THURSDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING QUICKLY AFTER
SUNRISE.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...JGG
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