403
FXUS63 KPAH 111120
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
620 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SUMMER-LIKE 90S RETURN TO THE FORECAST TODAY AND STICK AROUND
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- A CONTINUED DRY WEATHER FORECAST WILL ONLY EXACERBATE DROUGHT
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
UPDATED THE AVIATION SECTION FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
QUAD STATE AT THIS TIME. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS WITH
SUSTAINED CLEARING, MORE LIKELY IN THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
QUAD STATE AND AT CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED SITES. SPRINKLES TO
LIGHT SHOWERS WEDNESDAY FIT WITH SOME OF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE
MODELS FOR PRECIPITATION, SO THE FORECAST OPTS TO INCLUDE
SPRINKLES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENTIRE QUAD STATE REGION AS
ANOTHER LITTLE PULSE MOVES INTO THE TROUGH WITH A BASE NEAR THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE QUAD STATE FROM THE PLAINS, AS
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SURGE. HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO REACH 90 IN
THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE QUAD STATE TODAY, THEN DO SO
AREAWIDE AFTERWARDS. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S AS THE RIDGE REACHES
WELL INTO ONTARIO. MODELS AGREE ON THE RIDGE BUT VARY IN
STRUCTURE AND TIMELINE. MOST NOTABLY, THE GFS KEEPS DEVELOPING A
TROPICAL SYSTEM NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST, AN OUTLIER FEATURE
COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS, THOUGH THE EURO IS NOW SHOWING A
CLOSED LOW INLAND IN THAT VICINITY. MODELS HAVE VARIED COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS NORTHWEST OF THE QUAD STATE EACH DAY OVER THE
WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY WEEK WITH REDUCED POTENTIAL LOCALLY. FOR
NOW, WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST PER THE NBM BUT INCREASE
SILENT POPS TO AROUND 10%, MAINLY IN AREAS CLOSER TO ST. LOUIS.
THERE MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE AN INCLUSION OF SPRINKLES OR
SHOWERS ONE OR MORE DAYS OVER THE WEEKEND TO EARLY WEEK.
ALL THIS TALK ABOUT BORDERLINE INCLUSION OF SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
SHOWERS OF COURSE DOES NOTHING WHEN IT COMES TO RELIEF FROM
DEVELOPING DROUGHT CONDITIONS. HUMIDITY DROPS PARTICULARLY LOW
FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY WEEK (FURTHER MITIGATING SHOWER POTENTIAL
BY SHIFTING IT TO SPRINKLES OR VIRGA) WITH SOME LOCATIONS
DROPPING TO 25% OR LOWER. FORTUNATELY, WINDS ARE LIGHT THROUGH
THE ENTIRE 7 DAY FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
VSBY REDUCTIONS, WITH PATCHES OF SHALLOW DENSE FOG, WILL OCCUR
AT SEVERAL AIRPORTS IN THE QUAD STATE REGION OVER THE NEXT HOUR
OR TWO. AFTERWARDS, VFR CONDITIONS ARE PROJECTED WITH CONTINUED
MID-LEVEL CLOUD HEIGHTS AND LIGHT WINDS. A FEW SPRINKLES ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT ARE NOT NOTABLE ENOUGH TO WARRANT
TAF INCLUSION.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
UPDATE...ATL
DISCUSSION...ATL
AVIATION...ATL
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