503
FXUS63 KPAH 120402
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1102 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SUMMER-LIKE 90S STICK AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
- A CONTINUED DRY WEATHER FORECAST WILL ONLY EXACERBATE DROUGHT
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS WITH NO MEASURABLE PRECIP
IN THE FORECAST.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1101 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAFS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 134 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
A LARGE OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN WITH TROUGHING OVER THE US EAST
COAST, RIDGING JUST TO OUR WEST, AND ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST IS APPARENT ON SATELLITE THIS AFTERNOON.
5000-7000 FT CUMULUS DECKS ARE POPPING UP IN THE AFTERNOON HEAT.
KEPT THE SPRINKLES IN THE FORECAST BUT THE ODDS OF MEASURABLE
PRECIP STILL APPEAR QUITE LOW. TEMPERATURES ARE ABOUT ON TRACK
PUSHING INTO THE LOW 90S, AND THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS LOOKS
SIMILAR WITH THE BLOCKING PATTERN KEEPING SUBSIDENCE/FAIRLY HIGH
500MB HEIGHTS IN PLACE. MEANWHILE ALL OF THE MORE APPRECIABLE
COLUMN MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA.
THE PATTERN THEN LOOKS TO REMAIN REMARKABLY CONSISTENT. 108-HOUR
PROJECTIONS OF METEOROLOGICAL FIELDS LOOK PRETTY SIMILAR TO
TODAY'S 0-HOUR ANALYSIS AND FOR THAT MATTER EVEN THE 180-HOUR
PROJECTIONS. IT WILL LIKELY TAKE A FAIRLY ROBUST TROUGH MOVING
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST OR SOUTHWEST TO BREAK UP THIS PATTERN.
THE RELATIVELY LOW COLUMN MOISTURE, WITHOUT ANY SUPPORT FROM DRY
GROUND/VEGETATION TRANSPIRATION, LOOK UNLIKELY TO SPARK EVEN A
FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS GIVEN THE OVERALL PATTERN. AS
OF THIS MORNING JUST OVER 25-PERCENT OF THE AREA HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO D2-SEVERE DROUGHT STATUS ON THE US DROUGHT MONITOR,
WITH ALMOST 90% IN D1-MODERATE DROUGHT, OR HIGHER. THIS LOOKS
HIGHLY UNLIKELY TO IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1101 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG CAN'T BE RULED OUT AGAIN LATE TONIGHT,
BUT OVERALL LIKELY WILL BE QUITE ISOLATED. OTHERWISE LIGHT
WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. FEW-SCT CU WITH BASES OF
7-8KFT POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT
TOMORROW, GENERALLY 5 KTS OR LESS.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
UPDATE...SP
DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...SP
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