420
FXUS63 KPAH 120807
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
307 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SUMMER-LIKE 90S STICK AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
- A CONTINUED DRY WEATHER FORECAST WILL ONLY EXACERBATE DROUGHT
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS WITH NO MEASURABLE PRECIP
IN THE FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN IS DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WITH TROUGHS LOCATED ALONG THE EAST COAST AND OVER THE GREAT
BASIN. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND EXPAND NORTHWARD
INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH THE EASTERN TROUGH SHIFTING FURTHER AWAY,
MODELS LACK THE SPRINKLE/SHOWER POTENTIAL OF THE LAST COUPLE
DAYS, WITH ONLY ONE OR TWO MODELS PINGING THE OZARK FOOTHILLS
TODAY/TOMORROW, NOT ENOUGH SUPPORT TO JUSTIFY INCLUSION DESPITE
THE POP-UP SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOWS EARLY THIS
MORNING ARE PROJECTED TO LAND IN THE NEAR 60 TO LOWER 60S RANGE
FOR MOST SITES WITH SOME PATCHY SHALLOW FOG DEVELOPMENT
POSSIBLE. MORE SITES REACH THE 90S TODAY AS THE RIDGE
STRENGTHENS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO HOLD THE RIDGE OVER US THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR
HIGHS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH MIGHT APPROACH A COUPLE
RECORDS, WHILE LOWS STAY IN THE 60S AS MOISTURE (EITHER VIA
ADVECTION OR FROM THE SOIL) IS LIMITED. MODEL UNCERTAINTY LIES
WITH THE POSITIONING OF BOTH TROUGHS, AND THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS EMBEDDED AT THEIR BASES, AND WHAT SYSTEMS MAY BREAK
THROUGH. SOME OPERATIONAL RUNS, ESPECIALLY THE GFS, BRING A FAIR
AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE AREA EARLY TO MID WEEK,
BUT ENSEMBLES INDICATE LOW CONFIDENCE IN SUCH OUTCOMES. A DRY
PATTERN IS HEAVILY FAVORED TO REMAIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE RIDGING PATTERN TO BREAK LATE
WEEK WITH A SYSTEM APPROACHING (OR DRIFTING AS A CUTOFF INTO THE
RIDGE), BUT FOR NOW, HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST, WITH
FURTHER DROUGHT DEVELOPMENT ANTICIPATED.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1101 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG CAN'T BE RULED OUT AGAIN LATE TONIGHT,
BUT OVERALL LIKELY WILL BE QUITE ISOLATED. OTHERWISE LIGHT
WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. FEW-SCT CU WITH BASES OF
7-8KFT POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT
TOMORROW, GENERALLY 5 KTS OR LESS.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
UPDATE...SP
DISCUSSION...ATL
AVIATION...SP
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