850
FXUS63 KPAH 122318
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
618 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE, WITH THE HOTTEST
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
- OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, WHILE
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL STARTING
SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
- LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL KEEP HEAT INDICES CLOSE TO THE
ACTUAL TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 210 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
MODELS SHOW UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TODAY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WITH DEEP TROFS TO THE WEST AND EAST OF
THE RIDGE. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE A LITTLE FARTHER EAST THIS
WEEKEND AS THE WESTERN TROF CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHWARD,
RESULTING IN A CLASSIC OMEGA HIGH BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS. BECAUSE OF THIS
PATTERN, CONTINUED VERY DRY AND VERY HOT CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE PAH FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY
DAYTIME HIGHS, ARE ALREADY RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL, AND BY SUNDAY, READINGS WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S. DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S
TO MIDDLE 60S AND VERY DRY SOIL CONDITIONS WILL KEEP HUMIDITY
READINGS LOW, PRODUCING HEAT INDEX READINGS NEAR THE ACTUAL AIR
TEMPERATURES.
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT THROUGH OUR AREA TONIGHT.
THERE IS VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, BUT THE MODEL BLEND
SHOWS SOME VERY LOW CHANCES OF A FEW SHOWERS IN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST INDIANA LATE TONIGHT. MEASURABLE RAIN IS UNLIKELY,
WITH THE BEST CHANCES REMAINING EAST OF OUR AREA, BUT MAYBE AN
ISOLATED LOCATION OR TWO WILL HAVE SOME LUCK. BEHIND THE FRONT,
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST, HELPING BOLSTER THE HOTTER
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY.
MODELS SHOW THE UPPER HIGH BREAKING DOWN SOMEWHAT TOWARD MID
WEEK, ALLOWING THE TROF TO OUR WEST TO MAKE SOME EASTWARD
PROGRESSION. SOME MODELS HINT AT A LITTLE PRECIPITATION LATE
NEXT WEEK, BUT TIMING IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION AND CONFIDENCE IS
WAY TOO LOW. THE MODEL BLEND SHOWS A BIT OF A DOWNWARD TREND OF
TEMPERATURES FOR LATE NEXT WEEK, BUT HIGHS BY FRIDAY WILL STILL
BE 4-7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 616 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES.
SOME LIGHT DAYTIME CU IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN AROUND MID-
MORNING AT AROUND 8K-9K FT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
DURING THE DAY.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RST
AVIATION...HICKFORD
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