175
FXUS63 KPAH 140455
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1155 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE 7 TO 10+
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S.
- LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL KEEP HEAT INDICES CLOSE TO THE
ACTUAL TEMPERATURES.
- SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS RETURN LATE IN
THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY UP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS A
TROF CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
U.S. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK BOUNDARY IS LIFTING THROUGH THE
PAH FORECAST AREA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI INTO SOUTHWEST
ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE LACKING MOISTURE, MODELS SHOW
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHWEST
INDIANA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS DOWN TO THE
PENNYRILE REGION OF WEST KENTUCKY LATE TONIGHT. ON SUNDAY, HOT
TEMPERATURES AND WEAK INSTABILITY COULD PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR REGION IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. AGAIN, LACKING MOISTURE WILL KEEP COVERAGE WIDELY
SCATTERED IN NATURE AT BEST, AND AMOUNTS WILL DO LITTLE TO
NOTHING TO IMPROVE THE VERY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA.
THE MAIN STORY SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL REACH THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 90S, WHICH IS NEAR 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASON NORMALS. BY
LATE WEEK, THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE BREAKING DOWN, ALLOWING THE
WESTERN TROF TO PUSH EASTWARD TOWARD OUR REGION. AT THE SURFACE,
A WEAK SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. THE MODEL BLEND PRODUCES 20-30% CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS IN THE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD, WHICH
SEEMS A GOOD STARTING POINT. WE WILL ALSO SEE TEMPERATURES
TRENDING COOLER, WITH READINGS CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
WE MAINTAINED THE FOG MENTION ONLY AT KCGI. IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE. THERE REMAINS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EVEN
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
REGION OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING. CONTINUED WITH THE VCSH AT
KEVV AND KOWB THROUGH 15Z. LATER ON THERE IS A GOOD SIGNAL FOR
SHRA/TSRA AT KCGI AND KPAH FROM AROUND 00Z AND THROUGH MUCH OF
THE EVENING. USED PROB30S, BUT ONLY MENTIONED VFR SHOWERS FOR
NOW.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RST
AVIATION...DRS
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