126
FXUS63 KPAH 141123
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
623 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE 7 TO 10+
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S.
- LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL KEEP HEAT INDICES CLOSE TO THE
ACTUAL TEMPERATURES.
- ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. MORE RAIN CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE LATE
THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS REMAINS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD THE MIDDLE
OF THE COUNTRY THIS MORNING. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS PIVOTING
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND ADDITIONAL TROUGHING ALSO EXISTS ACROSS
THE EAST COAST. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING
IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH A NEARLY CALM WIND. CAN'T RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
OVER OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES THE
REGION TODAY LEADING TO ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S,
WARMER IN THE WEST WHERE UPPER 90S ARE FORECAST. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS MARGINALLY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE. COVERAGE SHOULD BE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AT
BEST.
MONDAY ONWARD WE SEE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING OFF THE ROCKIES
AND LIFTING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS TILTS THE UPPER RIDGE
A BIT NORTHEAST BUT CONTINUES TO KEEP THE RIDGE AXIS NEARLY
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. CONTINUED HOT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S. DRY WEATHER IS
LIKELY FOR THIS PERIOD WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATING. LOW
HUMIDITY WILL KEEP HEAT INDICES NEAR THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURES.
BEYOND WEDNESDAY GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE A BIT, BUT CONTINUES
TO SHOW INCREASED TROUGHING FOR THE LATE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL FAVOR COOLER TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES
RETURNING WITH 20-40% CHANCES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, AND
LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCES INTO SATURDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
EXPECTING A VFR FORECAST NEXT 24 HOURS. SCT CIGS AROUND 7KFT
WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE
SHOWS ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. CONTINUED WITH PROB30
GROUPS FOR CGI AND PAH FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS ACTIVITY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT, LESS THAN 5 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AD
AVIATION...AD
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