034
FXUS63 KPAH 142327
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
627 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE 7 TO 10+ DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S.
- LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL KEEP HEAT INDICES CLOSE TO THE
ACTUAL TEMPERATURES VERSUS HAVING ISSUES WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES.
- ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. MORE RAIN CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE LATER
THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL LINGER ACROSS THE QUAD STATE AREA THROUGH
AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A TROUGH DIGS IN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THAT TIME PERIOD. IN FACT, IT LOOKS LIKE LOW
TO MID 90S WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO
THURSDAY. THAT IS PUSHING CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. FOR
COMPARISON, NORMAL HIGHS ACROSS THE AREA ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. PWATS/MOISTURE IS NEAR NORMAL WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE 60S, SO HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO
THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURE. NOT THAT IT HELPS MUCH AS IT IS STILL HOT!!
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE (15-20% CHANCE) THIS AFTERNOON
AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST FOCUS WILL LIKELY BE OVER
SEMO, FAR SOUTHERN IL AND FAR WESTERN KY. OTHERWISE, THE NEXT BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG FARTHER SOUTHEAST INTO THE
QUAD STATE AREA. AT THE SAME TIME, A COUPLE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ARE
EXPECTED TO APPROACH OR MOVE THROUGH THE AREA, BRINGING A BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY DOESN'T LOOK
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AT THIS TIME, BUT IT IS WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BEHIND, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AND WITH THE
TROUGH OVERHEAD FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
PULL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL OR RIGHT AROUND THE MID 80S.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
SEVERAL STORMS PRESENT AROUND THE AREA ON RADAR THIS EVENING,
BUT SHOULD BE DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. IF STORMS HAPPEN TO
AFFECT THE MVN OR CGI SITES THERE COULD BE A VSBY REDUCTION TO
AROUND 4SM, WITH GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT. THE
REST OF THE EVENING SHOULD BE UNEVENTFUL. SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG
MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND NEAR SUNRISE AROUND CGI (PARTICULARLY
IF THEY GET SOME RAIN THIS EVENING). TOMORROW DURING THE DAY
WILL SEE SOME CU DEVELOP IN THE MIDLEVELS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KC
AVIATION...HICKFORD
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