089
FXUS63 KPAH 151138
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
638 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE 7 TO 10+ DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S.
- LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL KEEP HEAT INDICES CLOSE TO THE
ACTUAL TEMPERATURES VERSUS HAVING ISSUES WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES.
- NEXT RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 236 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FEATURES AN OMEGA BLOCK ACROSS THE CONUS
WITH TROUGHING IN THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND ACROSS THE
EAST COAST WITH A RIDGE AXIS FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE OMEGA BLOCK BREAKS DOWN LATER THIS WEEK
WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE PATTERN DEVELOPING BY MID TO LATE WEEK.
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. A FEW
SHOWERS OR STORMS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT TODAY ACROSS
FAR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. KEPT THE LOW END POPS (< 30%) FOR THIS
AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. WE STILL LOOK TO LUCK OUT ON THE LOWER DEWPOINTS
AND SUBSEQUENT LOW HEAT INDICES.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARRIVE LATE IN THE WEEK
AND WEEKEND ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AS EARLY AS FRIDAY MORNING WITH
THE REST OF THE AREA SEEING CHANCE POPS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. CHANCES LOOK TO LINGER INTO SUNDAY AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THIS WEEKEND GIVEN THE INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED SHOWERS/STORMS WITH FORECAST HIGHS BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE MID 80S.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
A MOSTLY VFR FORECAST FOR THIS TAF ISSUANCE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AT OR LESS THAN 5 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BECOMING CALM
TONIGHT. THERE IS A SIGNAL IN THE GUIDANCE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT
AT CGI TONIGHT AND WENT AHEAD AND INTRODUCED MVFR FOG AFTER 09Z
TONIGHT. EXPECT SCATTERED MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AD
AVIATION...AD
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