570
FXUS63 KPAH 161904
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
204 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN TOASTY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S THROUGH
THURSDAY. WHILE SLIGHTLY COOLER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
- CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN LATE
FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. UNFORTUNATELY,
RAINFALL AMOUNTS LIKELY WILL REMAIN LIGHT, WITH PROSPECTS OF
>0.50" RATHER LOW.
- DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL LINGER AND LIKELY WORSEN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE REGION OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 203 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
UPPER RIDGING WILL MAINTAIN A MAINLY DRY FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF
FRIDAY. HOWEVER, THERE IS A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH THAT IS PRODUCING A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKS LESS LIKELY FOR THIS ON WEDNESDAY, BUT CAN'T
BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE ACROSS WYOMING TODAY WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE
EASTWARD AND INTO THE MIDWEST BY FRIDAY. MODELS VARY ON THE
EVOLUTION AND PLACEMENT BY LATE WEEK THOUGH, WITH THE ECMWF FURTHER
SOUTH AND GFS/CANADIAN FURTHER NORTH. THE FURTHER NORTH SOLUTION
WOULD LIKELY MEAN LESS COVERAGE AND LIGHTER QPF FOR THE WEEKEND IF
REALIZED. REGARDLESS OF WHICH SOLUTION PANS OUT, IT DOESN'T LOOK TO
BE A DROUGHT BUSTER BY ANY MEANS. LOOKING AT THE 72 HOUR PROBABILITY
FROM THE LREF ONLY GIVES US A 20-40% CHANCE OF >0.50" THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. MOST LIKELY OUTCOME AS IT LOOKS NOW IS FOR MOST AREAS TO
REMAIN IN THE 0.10" TO 0.25" RANGE, WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS.
ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES MAY CONTINUE EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT MODEL
AGREEMENT ISN'T GREAT LENDING TO LESS CONFIDENCE. THE ECMWF AIFS IN
PARTICULAR IS BULLISH HANGING UP A TROUGH ORIENTED FROM THE ARK-LA-
TEX INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND RAMPS UP MOISTURE TRANSPORT
GIVING US 1-2" OF RAIN. THIS IS THE OUTLIER SOLUTION AT THIS POINT
THOUGH.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN TOASTY THROUGH THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY
LEVELS REMAIN TOLERABLE SO HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE SIMILAR TO OR
EVEN A DEGREE COOLER THAN THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURE. INCREASED CLOUDS
ON FRIDAY SHOULD KEEP US SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER, ALTHOUGH WE MAY
STILL REACH HIT 90 IN SOME AREAS. THIS WOULD BE THE 9TH CONSECUTIVE
DAY OF 90 IN PADUCAH, WHICH WOULD BE 1 SHY OF THE SEPTEMBER RECORD
OF 10 STRAIGHT DAYS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. LOOKS
LIKE TRUE FALL WEATHER WILL REMAIN ON HOLD FOR A WHILE LONGER.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1156 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO JUST A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT. LIKELY WILL BE SOME PATCHY FOG AGAIN
TONIGHT, PARTICULARLY AT KCGI. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT /1 AM EDT/ WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION...SP
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