062
FXUS63 KPAH 010724
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
224 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK THEN COME DOWN
SLIGHTLY, BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL, LATE WEEK.
- WEAK POPS (15-20%) RETURN TO THE FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2025
NO REAL CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST, RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SFC
ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGH LATE
WEEK, THEN COME DOWN SLIGHTLY TO THE LOW TO MID 80S OVER THE WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL CONTIUE TO BE OUT OF THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST UNTIL FRIDAY WHEN THE SFC HIGH MOVES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
AND TURNS WINDS SOUTHERLY. MOISTURE INCREASES WITH THIS SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND A SUBTLE LOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THIS
MOISTURE BRINGS BACK SOME WEAK (15-20%) POPS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY THOUGH AROUND HOW MUCH OR HOW
LITTLE RAIN IS EXPECTED AND HOW WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MAY OR MAY NOT
BE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 423 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2025
PERSISTENCE STRATEGY FORECAST IS BEST IN THIS LITTLE/NO
MOVEMENT, HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATED SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THAT MEANS
CLEARING NIGHT-TIME SKIES SAVE FOR FEW-SCT HIGH LEVEL BASES THAT
TIME/HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS HINT, AND POSSIBLY PATCHY FOG AT
MAINLY PRONE TERMINAL KCGI OFFERING THE ONLY TEMPORARY
RESTRICTION POTENTIAL. TMRW WILL REPEAT TODAY WITH FEW-SCT BASES
6-8K FT AGL IN A GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY COLUMNAR
FLOW.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HICKFORD
AVIATION...
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