484
FXUS63 KPAH 020436
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1136 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN
EARLY NEXT WEEK, MAINLY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE VERY LIGHT.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK, COOLING
TO MORE SEASONABLE READINGS WEDNESDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 150 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER TONIGHT ON
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM,
GENERALLY 6-12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
SOUTHERLY THURSDAY, AND INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND. THESE WINDS
WILL HELP BRING A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE INTO THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MODELS SHOW A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST
MONDAY, MOVING THROUGH THE PAH FORECAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY MAINLY IN PORTIONS OF
WEST KENTUCKY DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY. SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCES ARRIVE FOR THE ENTIRE AREA WITH THE FRONT LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT THE MODEL BLEND ONLY PRODUCES
20-30% CHANCES SO FAR. AT THIS POINT, IT LOOKS LIKE MANY AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY, AND ONLY AREAS LUCKY ENOUGH TO SEE A
THUNDERSTORM WILL SEE OVER A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. A
SHOWER OR STORM MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY IN THE PENNYRILE
REGION OF WEST KENTUCKY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND HOPE
FOR SOME BETTER MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL, BUT
BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY READINGS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2025
FROM MVN TO PAH AND WESTWARD THERE IS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
MOISTURE PROFILE FOR AT LEAST PATCHY FOG. AMONG TAF SITES CGI
APPEARS MOST FAVORABLE TO DROPS TO IFR VISIBILITY IN THE PRE-
DAWN HOURS. DURING THE DAY THURSDAY PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST. THERE WILL BE AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON BUT THE COVERAGE/PROBABILITY OF
IMPACT IS TOO LOW FOR A TAF MENTION FOR NOW.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RST
AVIATION...JGG
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