659
FXUS63 KPAH 020642
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
142 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
TRENDING TO NEAR NORMAL BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.
- WHILE A SPRINKLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT TODAY, MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO A HALF
INCH ARE POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 142 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2025
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST TODAY, ALLOWING FOR A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT 500 MB TO MOVE OVER THE FA THIS AFTERNOON.
RECENT RUNS OF THE CAMS AND THE LREF ARE ALL HINTING AT THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE OR SHOWER LATER TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. WHILE COVERAGE WILL BE EXTREMELY SPARSE DUE TO WEAK FLOW
ALOFT, MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT OMEGA AROUND 700 MB AND MODEST
MOISTURE BETWEEN 850-700 MB THAT MAY BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME A DRY
BOUNDARY LAYER. ADDED A 15% POP TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LOW PROBABILITY
AS SILENT POPS REMAIN PROGGED BY THE NBM.
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY RETURNS TO END THE WEEK AS A MORE
AMPLIFIED 500 MB TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE ALONG THE WEST COAST THURSDAY
NIGHT. TRANQUIL WEATHER AND DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH OVER CANADA EJECTS TOWARDS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE FA BY WEDNESDAY. IN THE WAKE OF FROPA, MOISTURE
RETURN FROM THE SOUTHWEST RAMPS UP ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHEN THE
RISK OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GREATER. PCPN
CHANCES MAY LINGER INTO THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY, WITH THE
GFS AND ECMWF BOTH INDICATING THE FRONT CLEARING BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. QPF AMOUNTS ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE, WITH MOST LOCATIONS
ONLY PICKING UP TO A HALF INCH, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
OVER 1 INCH POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TRENDING INTO THE LOWER 80S BY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOWS GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2025
FROM MVN TO PAH AND WESTWARD THERE IS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
MOISTURE PROFILE FOR AT LEAST PATCHY FOG. AMONG TAF SITES CGI
APPEARS MOST FAVORABLE TO DROPS TO IFR VISIBILITY IN THE PRE-
DAWN HOURS. DURING THE DAY THURSDAY PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST. THERE WILL BE AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON BUT THE COVERAGE/PROBABILITY OF
IMPACT IS TOO LOW FOR A TAF MENTION FOR NOW.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...JGG
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