623
FXUS63 KPAH 031017
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
517 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A STRAY SPRINKLE IS POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH ALONG I-64 THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT COVERAGE WILL BE MORE LIMITED IF ANY COMPARED
TO YESTERDAY.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
FOLLOWED BY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO A HALF
INCH ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 118 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2025
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
WEST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A FEW OF THE 0Z CAMS ARE STILL
HINTING AT JUST ENOUGH LINGERING WEAKNESS TO SUPPORT A STRAY SPRINKLE
THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY ALONG I-64 WHERE SUBTLE PVA REMAINS FROM A
SHORTWAVE. THERMO PROFILES ARE NOT QUITE AS IMPRESSIVE COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY, WITH LESS INSTABILITY AND MEAGER MOISTURE AROUND 800 MB
DESPITE VERY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE,
KEPT NBM POPS SILENT AND ONLY ADDED A SLIGHT SPRINKLE MENTION FOR
THIS AFTERNOON USING BLENDS OF THE NAMNEST AND NSSLWRF. OVERALL,
WOULD EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE MORE LIMITED IF ANY AS IT IS ALSO
POSSIBLE THE RIDGE SUPPRESSES ANY PCPN NORTH OF THE FA.
THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S. NIGHTTIME
LOWS TREND MORE INTO THE 50S AS LOWER DEWPOINTS AND DRIER AIR
IN THE COLUMN WILL SUPPORT SLIGHTLY BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING.
BY MONDAY, AN INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO OCCUR AS A
MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE DOWNSTREAM FROM CANADA
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
REMAIN PROGGED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH MODEL CONSENSUS NOW
SHOWING A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WITH THE BETTER FORCING REMAINING NORTH OF THE FA, QPF
AMOUNTS REMAIN LIGHT AND WILL LIKELY PROVIDE VERY LITTLE RELIEF
FOR THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS, WITH ONLY A FEW TENTHS TO A
HALF INCH PROGGED.
TEMPERATURES TREND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL INTO THE LATTER
HALF OF NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WELL INTO THE 70S WITH LOWS
PROGGED IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. WITH A 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY, IT WILL CERTAINLY FEEL A LOT MORE
LIKE FALL WITH AMPLE DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 516 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2025
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE VICINITY OF KOWB
THIS MORNING. CLOSE CALL IF PCPN WILL IMPACT THE TERMINAL AS
THERE IS VERY LITTLE STORM MOTION DUE TO WEAK FLOW ALOFT. SHOULD
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OCCUR, HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH IFR
CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING WOULD BE THE MAIN CONCERN
THROUGH 13Z. OTHERWISE, PATCHY FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS
THE REST OF THE REGION, ESPECIALLY NEAR KMVN THIS MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. A SPRINKLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
I-64, BUT MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY. WINDS WILL BE
SOUTH BETWEEN 6-7 KTS, TURNING CALM AFTER SUNSET.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...DW
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