176
FXUS63 KPAH 050452
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1152 PM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WEEKEND WARM/DRY.
- A RAINY PATTERN EMERGES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CUMULATIVE
AVERAGE MONDAY-TUESDAY RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY IN THE 0.50
TO 1.50 INCH RANGE. LOCALLY HIGHER AND LOWER TOTALS ARE
POSSIBLE.
- A DRIER AND MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURE PATTERN RETURNS FOR THE
BACK HALF OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
A BROAD ANTICYCLONE WITH H5 HEIGHTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 580S DM AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST TO THE EAST HOLDING IN THE LOWER
1020S MB WILL KEEP A DRY/WARM FLOW PATTERN FOR US THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND. RETURN CIRCULATORY WRAP AROUND THE EASTWARD MEANDERING
HIGH DOES NUDGE DEW POINTS UPWARD FROM THE 50S INTO THE MID-UPPER
60S BY MONDAY-TUESDAY. THAT'S WHEN COLUMNAR MOISTURE INPUT IS BEST
ON THE RISE, AND HEIGHT FALLS START TO BREAK INTO THE DOMINANCE OF
THE RIDGE AS A DEVELOPING HIGH PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST SYSTEM DROPS A
COLD FRONT THAT MARKS ITS APPROACH TO/OVER THE PAH FA. THE MODEL'S
INDICATION OF LIMITED INSTABILITY AND WEAK SHEAR PROVIDES LITTLE
IMPETUS FOR STRONG-SVR STORMS AT THIS WRITING HERE, BUT THE AMPLE
MOISTURE RETURN AND OVERALL PCPN EFFICIENCY SHOULD MAKE FOR A NICE
SOAKING RAINY PERIOD THAT YIELDS ANYWHERE FROM UP TO A HALF INCH OR
SO IN SOME LOCALES, TO PERHAPS 1.5 INCHES OR BETTER IN OTHERS. THESE
AMOUNTS ARE NOT GENERALLY EXPECTED TO CAUSE ISSUES, ESP AS THEY'LL
SPREAD OUT OVER A 48-72 HOUR PERIOD. HOWEVER, WITH RISING PWAT'S AS
INDICATED BY NAEFS, ESAT PINGS LOW END 2-5 YEAR RETURN INTERVALS ON
90TH PERCENTILE PLUS SOURCE MOISTURE; SO LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
MIGHT NOT SHOCK TO PRODUCE ISOLATED FLOODING ISSUES, PERHAPS MOSTLY
FOR PRONE LOCALES.
AFTER THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM COMPLETES PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT, A
DRIER AND MORE SEASONAL AIR MASS TAKES OVER. HIGH RETURN GENERALLY
TO THE 70S WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER HALF 40S TO/THRU THE 50S
FOR THE BACK HALF OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
THE TAFS ARE VFR. A 4-5KFT CEILING IS POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS
AROUND MIDDAY MAINLY OVER THE KY AND IN SITES. A FEW SITES MAY
GUST 15-20KTS IN THE AFTERNOON.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...DRS
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