821
FXUS63 KPAH 051018
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
518 AM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN
IN STORE TO END THE WEEKEND.
- A PERIOD OF WET WEATHER REMAINS ON TRACK MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY IN THE 0.50 TO 1.50 INCH
RANGE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.
- A MORE SEASONABLE AND DRY PATTERN RETURNS FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 122 AM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE EAST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN, SUPPORTING ONE FINAL DAY OF DRY CONDITIONS
WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S. AS A 500 MB
TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY, IT WILL HELP PULL GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF A SFC COLD FRONT. INTERVALS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BECOME MORE PROBABLE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, PEAKING
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHEN THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS PROGGED.
MOISTURE RETURN CONTINUES TO LOOK MORE ROBUST ON THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE WITH THE ECMWF ESAT SUPPORTING 5 TO 10 YEAR RETURN
INTERVALS FOR PWATS BETWEEN 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES WHILE THE NAEFS IS
MORE IN THE 2 YEAR BALLPARK. THE DETERMINISTIC 0Z ECMWF REMAINS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH SUPPORT FROM ITS ENSEMBLE IN SHOWING 1 TO
3 INCHES OF QPF WITH THE HEAVIEST AXIS OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY.
MEANWHILE, THE CMC HAS TRENDED MORE TOWARDS THE GFS IN
SUPPORTING 0.5 TO 1.5 INCHES OF QPF WITH AN AXIS THAT IS
SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWEST EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST MISSOURI INTO
SOUTHWEST INDIANA. OVERALL 0.50 TO 1.50 INCHES OF RAINFALL STILL
SEEMS THE MOST PROBABLE OVER MOST OF THE FA, BUT IT IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE A FEW LOCATIONS WILL SEE LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS.
THE RISK FOR FLOODING REMAINS LOW GIVEN THE LONG DURATION, BUT WPC
DOES HAVE A MARGINAL ERO OVER MOST OF THE FA IN THEIR D3 OUTLOOK.
GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUPPORTING SKINNY CAPE AND A DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER, ISOLATED
FLOODING ISSUES FROM RUNOFF REMAINS THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE MOST
PRONE LOCATIONS. WEAK SHEAR AND INSTABILITY STILL DO NOT POSE MUCH
OF A RISK FOR STRONGER STORMS, WITH THE SOAKING RAIN BEING THE MAIN
CONCERN STILL.
THE COLD FRONT CLEARS OUT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY
A MORE SEASONABLE AND DRY AIR MASS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS IN
THE 50S INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 518 AM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
PATCHY FOG REMAINS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING, AND HAS ALREADY
IMPACTED TERMINALS KMVN AND KEVV. SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
AROUND 5 KFT AGL WILL THEN BUILD IN BY MIDDAY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. A FEW WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 15-20 KTS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING PEAK HEATING, ESPECIALLY AT KMVN. SKIES TURN MOSTLY CLEAR
AGAIN IN THE EVENING BEFORE A STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH
THE REGION WITH A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AT THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...DW
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