985
FXUS63 KPAH 052348
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
648 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WET WEATHER REMAINS ON TRACK MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH
CUMULATIVE AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE.
LOCALLY HIGHER AND LOWER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.
- A DRY AND MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURE PATTERN EMERGES FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
A NICE MOISTURE SURGE FROM WRAP-AROUND FLOW WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF
OUR NEXT APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM, DRIVING DEW POINTS UPWARDS
INTO THE UPPER HALF 60S BY MONDAY AND EVEN FLIRTING WITH 70F BY
TUESDAY. LITTLE INSTABILITY/SHEAR MEANS WHAT DEVELOPS WILL BE
MAINLY RAIN STORMS, AND NAEFS-ESAT CONTINUES TO PING 2-2.5
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR 90TH+ PERCENTILE PW'S THAT
THE ENSEMBLES MODEL. EFFICIENT RAINS OVER THIS 48 HOUR PERIOD
EQUATES TO HEALTHY 1-2" AMOUNTS ON AVERAGE; THE EURO REMAINS A
LITTLE WETTER, SUGGESTING LOCALIZED HIGHER TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE,
SO WE CONTINUE THE LOW END MARGINAL RISK ON FLOODING FOR THAT
ISOLATED SPOT POTENTIAL, BUT MOSTLY, IT'LL BE A WELCOMED
RAINFALL SPREAD OUT OVER ENOUGH TIME TO NOT CAUSE WIDESPREAD
ISSUES.
WITH THE ADDITIONAL CLOUDS FROM RAIN, THE DIURNAL SPREAD IN
TEMPS WILL NARROW MONDAY-TUESDAY, WHILE REMAINING WARM/HUMID.
AFTER THE SYSTEM COMPLETES ITS PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT,
COOLER/DRIER HIGH PRESSURE CIRCULATED AIR OVER THE BACK HALF OF THE
WEEK MAKES FOR A SEASONALLY PLEASANT 70S/50S (EVEN SOME 40S),
MODERATING TO AROUND 80F FOR HIGHS BY NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH
CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH CLOSER TO MORNING. WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE. TOMORROW WINDS
WILL BE AROUND 5-10 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND CIGS WILL LOWER DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
THESE CHANCES SHIFT TO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE SOUTHERN
3 TERMINALS (CGI, PAH, OWB) AFTER AROUND 21Z. COVERAGE OF STORMS
MAY ALSO PICK UP AFTER 21Z. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR
NORTH LIGHTNING WILL BE SEEN, WHICH IS WHY MVN AND EVV REMAIN AS
SHOWERS FOR NOW.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...HICKFORD
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