195
FXUS63 KPAH 060419
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1119 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WET WEATHER REMAINS ON TRACK MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH
CUMULATIVE AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE.
LOCALLY HIGHER AND LOWER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.
- A DRY AND MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURE PATTERN EMERGES FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
A NICE MOISTURE SURGE FROM WRAP-AROUND FLOW WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF
OUR NEXT APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM, DRIVING DEW POINTS UPWARDS
INTO THE UPPER HALF 60S BY MONDAY AND EVEN FLIRTING WITH 70F BY
TUESDAY. LITTLE INSTABILITY/SHEAR MEANS WHAT DEVELOPS WILL BE
MAINLY RAIN STORMS, AND NAEFS-ESAT CONTINUES TO PING 2-2.5
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR 90TH+ PERCENTILE PW'S THAT
THE ENSEMBLES MODEL. EFFICIENT RAINS OVER THIS 48 HOUR PERIOD
EQUATES TO HEALTHY 1-2" AMOUNTS ON AVERAGE; THE EURO REMAINS A
LITTLE WETTER, SUGGESTING LOCALIZED HIGHER TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE,
SO WE CONTINUE THE LOW END MARGINAL RISK ON FLOODING FOR THAT
ISOLATED SPOT POTENTIAL, BUT MOSTLY, IT'LL BE A WELCOMED
RAINFALL SPREAD OUT OVER ENOUGH TIME TO NOT CAUSE WIDESPREAD
ISSUES.
WITH THE ADDITIONAL CLOUDS FROM RAIN, THE DIURNAL SPREAD IN
TEMPS WILL NARROW MONDAY-TUESDAY, WHILE REMAINING WARM/HUMID.
AFTER THE SYSTEM COMPLETES ITS PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT,
COOLER/DRIER HIGH PRESSURE CIRCULATED AIR OVER THE BACK HALF OF THE
WEEK MAKES FOR A SEASONALLY PLEASANT 70S/50S (EVEN SOME 40S),
MODERATING TO AROUND 80F FOR HIGHS BY NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT, CLOUDS WILL START
TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH CLOSER TO MORNING. CIGS WILL LOWER
THROUGH THE MORNING TO MVFR. IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE
EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RAMP UP THROUGH THE
DAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS BEING MOST LIKELY AT CGI, PAH, AND OWB
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR
NORTH THE LIGHTNING COULD BE. DURING THE EVENING HOURS THERE MAY
BE A BREAK IN ACTIVITY FOR CGI AND MVN, WHERE AS SHOWERS ARE
STILL POSSIBLE TO LIKELY FOR PAH, OWB, AND EVV.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...HICKFORD
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