414
FXUS63 KPAH 061839
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
139 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- CUMULATIVE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH TUESDAY WILL AVERAGE 1
TO 3 INCHES. LOCALIZED HIGHER AND LOWER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.
- ANY FLOODING RISK WILL BE BEST OVER AND NEAREST TO WESTERN
KENTUCKY, WHERE 3+ INCH AMOUNTS ARE MOST POSSIBLE.
- A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 135 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
DEW POINTS HAVE RETURNED TO THE UPPER 60S, AND SOME 70F ARE ON
SCHEDULE AT THE DOORSTEP OF THE FA. THE SURGE IN MOISTURE IS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM THAT IS MODELED TO COME TOGETHER
AS IT MAKES ITS PASS OVER THE COMMONWEALTH. 12Z SOUNDING DATA
SHOWS PW'S APPROACHING 1.75", ON TRACK TO MOVE TOWARD 2", WHICH
PUTS IT CLOSER TO THE 99TH PERCENTILE OF CLIMO. BOTH THE
NAEFS/ECMWF ESAT'S HAVE TRENDED WETTER WITH RETURN INTERVALS
5-10 YRS WITH A COINCIDENT INCREASE TO AROUND 3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS INCREASES OUR CONFIDENCE IN WPC'S
UPWARD BUMP FROM MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING
FFG, BUT WITH RESPECT TO THAT, OUR 6 HOUR FFG VALUES ARE IN THE
3-5" RANGE, SO ISOLATED FLOODING, SHOULD IT DEVELOP, WILL BE
MOST LIKELY IN PRONE AREAS THAT HAVE RUNOFF ISSUES. THUNDER
CHANCES GROW WITH TIME BUT OVERALL, SHEAR/INSTABILITY ARE
LACKING FOR ANYTHING BEYOND THE CONSISTENTLY ADVERTISED GENERAL
RISK. ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IN THAT WILL BE TMRW, WHEN THE
FRONT IS MAKING ITS PUSH FOR PASSAGE. SOME MODELING REFLECTS A
WEAK SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPING/RIDING ALONG THE BOUNDARY AT THAT
TIME, WHICH OFFER JUST ENOUGH TO ENHANCE THE THUNDER RISK
BRIEFLY IN OUR SOUTHEAST AS WE MOVE INTO EARLY TMRW
PM...SOMETHING TO WATCH.
ALL WINDS DOWN BY 00Z WED AS THE FRONT COMPLETES PASSAGE AND THE
PARENT TROF SOON FOLLOWS. IT'LL SWEEP IN A PLEASANTLY COOLER AND
DRIER AIR MASS, WHICH RESULTS IN 40S/50S FOR LOWS, AND 70S FOR
HIGHS TO FINISH OUT THE WEEK. A WEEKEND WARMUP ENSUES, AND WE
JUST MIGHT SEE TEMPERATURES FLIRT WITH 80F AGAIN BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK IN WHAT LOOKS TO BE A CONTINUED DRY PATTERN FOR NOW, BUT
WE'LL HAVE TO WATCH THE TROPICS TO SEE HOW EVOLUTIONS THERE
WRINKLE THE PATTERN.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 135 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
TIME/HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS CONFIRM THE LOWERING BASES TREND
TOWARD RESTICTED CIGS IS ONGOING AND WILL CONTINUE. BY TONIGHT,
AN ALL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS FORECAST IS EXPECTED WITH BOTH
CIGS/VSBYS, AND AS RAIN CHANCES PICK UP AGAIN BY LATE TONIGHT
INTO THE PLANNING PHASE HOURS OF THE FORECAST TMRW MORNING,
ANTICIPATE THAT LOWERING TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE LIFR/IFR
CATEGORIES FOR EACH. FROPA DOES OCCUR TOWARD NEXT ISSUANCE TIME,
SO IMPROVEMENTS THEREAFTER SHOULD SOON FOLLOW. THUNDER CHANCES
ARE MARGINAL, BUT BEST AT SOUTHERN TERMINALS KCGI/KPAH.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
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