148
FXUS63 KPAH 071727
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1227 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER AND SEASONALLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL FINISH OUT THE WORK WEEK.
- THE COOLEST NIGHT WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT, WHEN CALM CONDITIONS
MAY SEE TEMPERATURES DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S NEAR MOUNT VERNON,
IL, ALLOWING FOR THE SEASON'S FIRST POTENTIAL APPEARANCE OF
PATCHY FROST.
- A WEEKEND WARMUP ENSUES, WITH 80F HIGHS REAPPEARING BY THE
START OF THE NEW WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
WITH THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COMPLETING PASSAGE, THE HEAVY
RAIN THREAT WINDS DOWN. RADAR ESTIMATES WERE ALIGNED CLOSELY
WITH GROUND TRUTH TO ON-GROUND SPOTTER REPORTS, WITH THE
HEAVIEST AXIS OF A BROAD SWATH OF GENERALLY 3-5" RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OCCURRING ALONG AND EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM NEAR
EDDYVILLE, IL TO ROCKPORT, IN. MUCH OF THIS RAIN WAS SPREAD OUT
OVER AN 18+ HOURS PERIOD, RESULTING IN MINOR PRONE AREA, LOW
LAND, AND STREET FLOODING.
RECOVERY IS UNDERWAY NOW, BUT A CLOSE EXAMINATION OF TIME/HEIGHT
CROSS SECTIONS INDICATES CLOUDS MAY REDEVELOP/LINGER,
POTENTIALLY A LIGHT SHOWER, UNTIL THE H8 FRONT COMPLETES ITS
SEVERAL HOURS LAG PASSAGE. AFTERWARD, THE COOLER/DRIER AIR
OVERTAKES THE COLUMN, AND A NICE CLEAR-OUT OCCURS. TDD'S SUBSIDE
WITH THE DROP, EXCEPT IN ISOLATED LOCALES LIKE MVN, WHERE THE
DROP IS NOT AS STEEP AND SUGGESTS SOME MIFG MAY BE IN THE
OFFERING PRE-DAYBREAK TMRW MORNING.
THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK LOOKS SPECTACULAR AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WORKS UNDERNEATH RISING UPPER HEIGHTS ON ITS
TRANSLATION FROM THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. ITS
NORTH TO NORTHEAST ANTI-CYCLONE TRAJECTORY FLOW YIELDS AND
REINFORCES SEASONALLY COOLER TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE
40S/50S FOR LOWS, AND UPPER 60S AND LOWER HALF 70S FOR HIGHS.
THIS MIGHT INCLUDE SOME DIURNALLY ASSISTED NE GUSTINESS DURING
THE DAY TMRW, TOO, THAT MAKES IT FEEL A TAD CHILLIER EVEN WITH
SUNSHINE. THE COOLEST NIGHT WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT, WHEN CLEAR
SKIES AND CALM WINDS MIGHT EVEN PRODUCE SOME DAYBREAK UPPER 30S
IN OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES, IN/AROUND MT VERNON, IL; THIS
OFFERS OUR BEST CHANCE POTENTIAL FOR THE FIRST APPEARANCE OF
PATCHY FROST THIS SEASON IN OUR CWA, BUT DUE TO ITS BREVITY,
IT'S A LOW CHANCE MENTION.
TROPICAL INTERPLAY MAKES FOR AN INTERESTING SYNOPTIC MODELING IN
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST, BUT THE ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS
STAY STEADY-AS-SHE GOES FOR US IN SUGGESTING A CONTINED DRY BUT
MODERATING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME 80F
DEGREE HIGHS MIGHT EVEN APPEAR BY THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
WITH THE SURFACE FRONTAL PASSAGE, HEAVIER RAINS HAVE DRAWN DOWN
AND OUT OF THE TERMINALS, WITH DETIORATED BASES SHOWING
IMPROVEMENT WITH TIME. TIME/HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS DO SUGGEST
UNTIL THE H8 FRONT MAKES ITS PASSAGE WITH A FEW HOURS LAG TO THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY, ADDITIONAL SCT-BKN BASES FROM MVFR TO LOW VFR
REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE NIGHT-TIME HOURS. EVENTUALLY THE
COOLER/DRIER AIR WINS OUT AND TAKES OVER THE COLUMN BY AND ON
THRU THE PLANNING PHASE HOURS OF THE FORECAST. WINDS WILL TURN
TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WITH TIME, AND WE SHOULD PICK UP A
LITTLE DIURNAL GUSTINESS INTO/THRU THE DAYTIME HOURS TMRW.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
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