077  
FXUS63 KPAH 200659  
AFDPAH  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY  
159 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- DRY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST  
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.  
 
- WINDS FROM THE SOUTH WILL BECOME BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH  
GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH EXPECTED. LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS ARE  
POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.  
 
- RAIN CHANCES (40-60%) AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE  
FORECAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, FOLLOWED A 20-40% CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 159 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2025  
 
DESPITE A GENERALLY QUIET FORECAST TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH  
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES, THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL  
ACTUALLY BE QUITE BLOCKY. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH/RIDGES  
WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE  
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE SOUTH OF THESE  
FEATURES UNDER A GENERALLY ZONAL SUB-TROPICAL FLOW REGIME,  
RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATE TEMPERATURES FOR LATE  
OCTOBER.  
 
HOWEVER, SOME PERIODS OF BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE,  
ESPECIALLY TODAY. GRADIENT WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH ARE FORECAST  
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO 40 MPH NOT OUT OF THE  
QUESTION IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS. WINDS  
WILL SHIFT TO THE W-NW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO A  
TROUGH/SURFACE LOW PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT  
LAKES, WITH DAILY AFTERNOON PEAK WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 AND 20-25  
MPH FORECAST, RESPECTIVELY.  
 
RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST BEGINNING FRIDAY AS AN H5  
TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW DEVELOP IN THE SUB-TROPICAL JET FLOW,  
PASSING THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. POPS DURING  
THIS PERIOD HAVE INCREASED, WITH 40-60% NOW FORECAST.  
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY THANKS TO CLOUDS AND  
PRECIPITATION, ABOUT FIVE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SUNDAY WILL SEE  
RAIN CHANCES DIMINISHING TO ABOUT 20-40% ALONG WITH A REBOUND  
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURE LEVELS.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2025  
 
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES  
AND NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS. CALM TO LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS  
OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTH AT 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20KTS  
AFTER 13Z, INCREASING TO 12-18KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-28KTS BY  
18Z. AFTER 00Z, WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 10-15KTS WITH SOME GUSTS  
TO AROUND 20KTS.  
 
 
   
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
IL...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
IN...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
DISCUSSION...DWS  
AVIATION...RST  
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