123
FXUS63 KPAH 201909
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
209 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
- WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON AND ON TUESDAY WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 25 TO 35 MPH.
- A FEW SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A MUCH
GREATER CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS BEGINNING FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 209 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2025
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED 500 MB TROUGH AND 125 KT JET MAX AT 250 MB
WILL DIG ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER MINNESOTA WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE FA OVERNIGHT. ADDED A SPRINKLE MENTION WITH FROPA
AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE DEPTH AROUND 800 MB
THAT MAY BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE DRY BOUNDARY LAYER. WINDS WILL
ALSO REMAIN QUITE BREEZY DUE TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 25 TO 35 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND ON TUESDAY. ROBUST
MOMENTUM TRANSFER WITH DEEP MIXING TO 750 MB WILL ALLOW FOR
DEWPOINTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO MIX DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S,
TRANSLATING TO LOW RH VALUES AROUND 25 TO 35%.
THE COLUMN REMAINS EXTREMELY DRY ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE AN UPTICK IN
DEWPOINTS BEGINS TO OCCUR DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BUILDS EAST ON
THURSDAY. A 500 MB SHORTWAVE THEN EJECTS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND WILL BRING RAIN SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TOTAL QPF BETWEEN 0.50 TO 1.00 INCHES ON AVERAGE IS
PROGGED ACROSS THE FA, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER SEMO.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST
OF THE PERIOD RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. THE ONE CAVEAT IS
FRIDAY WHERE HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. AFTER A MILD
NIGHT, LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S THROUGH THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, FOLLOWED BY SOME MODERATION OVER THE
WEEKEND. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME PATCHY FROST AGAIN
ALONG I-64 EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS DUE TO THE AFORMENTIONED SFC HIGH PRESSURE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2025
GRADIENT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A DRY FRONT
THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 20-30
KTS. GUSTY WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH; HOWEVER, A BRIEF PERIOD OF LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
ALL TERMINALS WHEN WINDS NEAR THE SFC ARE ONLY 7-11 KTS. WINDS
BRIEFLY TURN GUSTY AROUND 20 KTS BETWEEN 3-8Z FROM WEST TO EAST
WITH SCT MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 8 KFT AGL BEFORE TURNING MORE
LIGHT AGAIN OUT OF THE WEST AROUND 6-9 KTS. WINDS INCREASE
AGAIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KTS
BY MIDDAY TUESDAY.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...DW
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