187
FXUS63 KPAH 081900
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
100 PM CST SAT NOV 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A SMALL, NON ZERO CHANCE (5%) OF STRONG/GUSTY WINDS
OUT OF ANY POTENTIAL CONVECTION THAT MAY DEVELOP ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD FRONT'S PASSAGE TONIGHT. THAT SAID, OUTSIDE OF A
FEW SHOWERS, THE MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT'S PASSAGE WILL BRING
OUR FIRST SHOT OF REAL COLD AIR TO START THE NEW WEEK.
- MORNING WIND CHILL VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS AND 20S
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A FEW FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
- SEASONALLY MILD, EVEN WARM CONDITIONS, RETURN WITH DRY
WEATHER FOR THE BACK HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 100 PM CST SAT NOV 8 2025
A SHARP COLD FRONT WITH A POLAR PLUNGE OF AIR WILL MAKE ITS
APPROACH AND PASSAGE THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. PCPN CHANCES,
INCLUDING THUNDER/STRONG WIND GUSTS, ARE SMALL (5%) BUT NOT ZERO
WITH THE MAINLY DRY FROPA. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL
AT BEST FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION, BUT IF ONE COULD GET GOING,
THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH THERE IN TERMS OF COLD
ADVECTION/STEEPENED LAPSE RATES TO SUPPORT A DOWNBURST OF GUSTY
WINDS; THE CHANCE IS MINIMAL (5%) BUT NOT ZERO. THE MAIN IMPACT
WILL BE THE FUNNELING IN OF THE FIRST SHOT OF A REAL COLD POLAR
SOURCED AIR MASS THAT PLUNGES OUR WIND CHILLS INTO THE 20S AND
30S DAYTIME, AND TEENS AT NIGHT, SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
IN ADDITION, THERE JUST MIGHT BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE AIR WITH
THE FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN THAT WE SEE INDUCED LIGHT (SNOW)
SHOWER ACTIVITY, OR FLURRIES, AT TIMES DURING THIS STRONG COLD
ADVECTION PATTERN.
AS H5 HEIGHTS RISE AGAIN BY MID WEEK, WE'LL SEE TEMPERATURES
RESPOND ACCORDINGLY, RETURNING TO SEASONALLY MILD, EVEN WARM
CONDITIONS, FOR THE BACK HALF OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 100 PM CST SAT NOV 8 2025
A RETURN TO VISUAL FLIGHT RULES CONDITIONS WILL HOLD FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH SCT-BKN HIGH LEVEL BASES MAINLY
IMPACTING TERMINALS. TIME/HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS DO SHOW BASES
LOWERING THRU THE COLUMN AS THE FRONT NEARS AND MAKES PASSAGE
TONIGHT, WITH RESTRICTED CIGS COMING INTO PLAY. PCPN CHANCES
WITH FROPA ARE REMOTE ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE FROM TERMINAL MENTION,
BUT BASES COULD LOWER THRU MVFR AND MAY TOUCH IFR AT TIMES
OVERNIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY BEHIND
THE FRONT. LINGERING MVFR BASES WITH BRISK/GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED THRU THE BULK OF THE PLANNING PHASE HOURS OF
THE FORECAST.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
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