281
FXUS63 KPAH 082340
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
540 PM CST SAT NOV 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A SMALL, NON ZERO CHANCE (5%) OF STRONG/GUSTY WINDS
OUT OF ANY POTENTIAL CONVECTION THAT MAY DEVELOP ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD FRONT'S PASSAGE TONIGHT. THAT SAID, OUTSIDE OF A
FEW SHOWERS, THE MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT'S PASSAGE WILL BRING
OUR FIRST SHOT OF REAL COLD AIR TO START THE NEW WEEK.
- MORNING WIND CHILL VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS AND 20S
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A FEW FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
- SEASONALLY MILD, EVEN WARM CONDITIONS, RETURN WITH DRY
WEATHER FOR THE BACK HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 100 PM CST SAT NOV 8 2025
A SHARP COLD FRONT WITH A POLAR PLUNGE OF AIR WILL MAKE ITS
APPROACH AND PASSAGE THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. PCPN CHANCES,
INCLUDING THUNDER/STRONG WIND GUSTS, ARE SMALL (5%) BUT NOT ZERO
WITH THE MAINLY DRY FROPA. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL
AT BEST FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION, BUT IF ONE COULD GET GOING,
THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH THERE IN TERMS OF COLD
ADVECTION/STEEPENED LAPSE RATES TO SUPPORT A DOWNBURST OF GUSTY
WINDS; THE CHANCE IS MINIMAL (5%) BUT NOT ZERO. THE MAIN IMPACT
WILL BE THE FUNNELING IN OF THE FIRST SHOT OF A REAL COLD POLAR
SOURCED AIR MASS THAT PLUNGES OUR WIND CHILLS INTO THE 20S AND
30S DAYTIME, AND TEENS AT NIGHT, SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
IN ADDITION, THERE JUST MIGHT BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE AIR WITH
THE FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN THAT WE SEE INDUCED LIGHT (SNOW)
SHOWER ACTIVITY, OR FLURRIES, AT TIMES DURING THIS STRONG COLD
ADVECTION PATTERN.
AS H5 HEIGHTS RISE AGAIN BY MID WEEK, WE'LL SEE TEMPERATURES
RESPOND ACCORDINGLY, RETURNING TO SEASONALLY MILD, EVEN WARM
CONDITIONS, FOR THE BACK HALF OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 540 PM CST SAT NOV 8 2025
A FAST-MOVING BAND OF SHOWERS MAY IMPACT ALL SITES THIS EVENING
INTO THE EARLY MORNING, AS THEY MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS
THE REGION. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW QUICKLY BEHIND THE
SHOWERS AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED AROUND 15KTS WITH
GUSTS 20-30KTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. MVFR CEILINGS
WILL FOLLOW QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND THEY MAY PERSIST FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTHEAST.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
AVIATION...DRS
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