510
FXUS63 KPAH 090538
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1138 PM CST SAT NOV 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A SMALL, NON ZERO CHANCE (5%) OF STRONG/GUSTY WINDS
OUT OF ANY POTENTIAL CONVECTION THAT MAY DEVELOP ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD FRONT'S PASSAGE TONIGHT. THAT SAID, OUTSIDE OF A
FEW SHOWERS, THE MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT'S PASSAGE WILL BRING
OUR FIRST SHOT OF REAL COLD AIR TO START THE NEW WEEK.
- MORNING WIND CHILL VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS AND 20S
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A FEW FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
- SEASONALLY MILD, EVEN WARM CONDITIONS, RETURN WITH DRY
WEATHER FOR THE BACK HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 100 PM CST SAT NOV 8 2025
A SHARP COLD FRONT WITH A POLAR PLUNGE OF AIR WILL MAKE ITS
APPROACH AND PASSAGE THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. PCPN CHANCES,
INCLUDING THUNDER/STRONG WIND GUSTS, ARE SMALL (5%) BUT NOT ZERO
WITH THE MAINLY DRY FROPA. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL
AT BEST FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION, BUT IF ONE COULD GET GOING,
THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH THERE IN TERMS OF COLD
ADVECTION/STEEPENED LAPSE RATES TO SUPPORT A DOWNBURST OF GUSTY
WINDS; THE CHANCE IS MINIMAL (5%) BUT NOT ZERO. THE MAIN IMPACT
WILL BE THE FUNNELING IN OF THE FIRST SHOT OF A REAL COLD POLAR
SOURCED AIR MASS THAT PLUNGES OUR WIND CHILLS INTO THE 20S AND
30S DAYTIME, AND TEENS AT NIGHT, SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
IN ADDITION, THERE JUST MIGHT BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE AIR WITH
THE FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN THAT WE SEE INDUCED LIGHT (SNOW)
SHOWER ACTIVITY, OR FLURRIES, AT TIMES DURING THIS STRONG COLD
ADVECTION PATTERN.
AS H5 HEIGHTS RISE AGAIN BY MID WEEK, WE'LL SEE TEMPERATURES
RESPOND ACCORDINGLY, RETURNING TO SEASONALLY MILD, EVEN WARM
CONDITIONS, FOR THE BACK HALF OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST SAT NOV 8 2025
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED AROUND 15KTS WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25KTS UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY EVENING WHEN THEY WILL
DIMINISH JUST A BIT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF KOWB BY 06Z. A
LARGE MASS OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL MAKE QUICK PROGRESS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH 09Z OR 10Z. THEY WILL LIFT TO VFR
OR SCATTER OUT FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...DRS
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